Predictions / Football / Netherlands. Tweede Divisie / Sparta Rotterdam II vs ROHDA Raalte

Prediction Audit: Sparta Rotterdam II vs ROHDA Raalte Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Sparta Rotterdam II Sparta Rotterdam II
Aug 15, 2026 - 13:00
6 1.32
1 1.28
xG Accuracy: 26%
ROHDA Raalte ROHDA Raalte

AI correctly predicted the Sparta Rotterdam II win.

The match finished 6–1, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (7 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Sparta Rotterdam II Sparta Rotterdam II ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 6-1 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Sparta Rotterdam II higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Sparta Rotterdam II -10.8 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Sparta Rotterdam II 36.1% 46.9% -10.8 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 23.5% +6.1 pp Model Higher
ROHDA Raalte 34.2% 29.5% +4.7 pp Aligned

The closing market estimates Sparta Rotterdam II's win probability at 46.9%, compared with the model's estimate of 36.1%, a difference of 10.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Sparta Rotterdam II win 6–1).

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Sparta Rotterdam II than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 7 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (7 goals)
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Sparta Rotterdam II higher (46.9% vs model 36.1%, 10.8 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Sparta Rotterdam II win 6–1).

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 15, 2026 · 13:03 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Sparta Rotterdam II 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · ROHDA Raalte 34.2%
    • xG · Sparta Rotterdam II 1.32 — ROHDA Raalte 1.28
  2. Aug 15, 2026 · 12:33 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Sparta Rotterdam II 1.93 · Draw 3.82 · ROHDA Raalte 3.05
    • Implied 1X2 · Sparta Rotterdam II 46.8% · Draw 23.6% · ROHDA Raalte 29.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 15, 2026 · 13:03 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Sparta Rotterdam II 1.95 · Draw 3.89 · ROHDA Raalte 3.10
    • Implied 1X2 · Sparta Rotterdam II 46.9% · Draw 23.5% · ROHDA Raalte 29.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 15, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Sparta Rotterdam II win · 6–1
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 58/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (11 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 45/100
Betting Confidence 46/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 09, 2026 · 01:51 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3348542

Closing Odds 1.95
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Sparta Rotterdam II win · Sparta Rotterdam II 6–1 ROHDA Raalte
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Tweede Divisie
  • Fixture: Sparta Rotterdam II vs ROHDA Raalte
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-15 13:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
  • xG (showing): Sparta Rotterdam II 1.32 — ROHDA Raalte 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 23, 2026 (UTC)

Related Predictions

See Upcoming Tweede Divisie Matches Track Sparta Rotterdam II Next Match Prediction Track ROHDA Raalte Next Match Prediction View Today's Football Predictions

Get Premium Predictions for Sparta Rotterdam II & ROHDA Raalte!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now
Back to Predictions
Tweede Divisie Tweede Divisie — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Quick Boys 5 5 0 0 15
2 HHC 5 3 2 0 11
3 Kozakken Boys 5 3 1 1 10
4 De Treffers 5 2 3 0 9
5 Spakenburg 5 3 0 2 9
6 Sparta Rotterdam II 5 2 2 1 8
7 Katwijk 5 2 2 1 8
8 RKAV Volendam 5 2 2 1 8
9 Ijsselmeervogels 4 2 1 1 7
10 Barendrecht 5 2 1 2 7
11 AFC Amsterdam 5 2 1 2 7
12 Hoek 5 1 2 2 5
13 Koninklijke HFC 5 1 2 2 5
14 Kloetinge 5 1 2 2 5
15 Rijnsburgse Boys 5 1 1 3 4
16 Almere City II 5 1 0 4 3
17 GVVV Veenendaal 4 0 0 4 0
18 ROHDA Raalte 5 0 0 5 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Sparta Rotterdam II 5 17 11 +6 8
2 Quick Boys 5 16 1 +15 15
3 Kozakken Boys 5 15 9 +6 10
4 De Treffers 5 12 5 +7 9
5 HHC 5 12 7 +5 11
6 Spakenburg 5 8 5 +3 9
7 Katwijk 5 8 6 +2 8
8 AFC Amsterdam 5 8 10 -2 7
9 Almere City II 5 8 10 -2 3
10 Rijnsburgse Boys 5 8 17 -9 4
11 Barendrecht 5 7 8 -1 7
12 Koninklijke HFC 5 7 9 -2 5
13 Kloetinge 5 7 11 -4 5
14 Hoek 5 6 7 -1 5
15 RKAV Volendam 5 6 9 -3 8
16 Ijsselmeervogels 4 5 3 +2 7
17 GVVV Veenendaal 4 5 14 -9 0
18 ROHDA Raalte 5 3 16 -13 0
Tweede Divisie Netherlands. Tweede Divisie Predictions