The model missed the final outcome (Břidličná win 2–1).
The model had projected Šumperk at 36.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Šumperk Břidličná ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-1 ✔ Correct
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Břidličná | 34.2% | 38.8% | -4.6 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.6% | 26.3% | +3.4 pp | Aligned |
| Šumperk | 36.1% | 34.9% | +1.2 pp | Aligned |
The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Břidličná win 2–1.
Market Assessment
The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.
- Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
- Exact score 2–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
Market lesson
The full-time result was Břidličná win 2–1, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 13:30 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Břidličná 34.2% · Draw 29.7% · Šumperk 36.1%
- xG · Břidličná 1.28 — Šumperk 1.32
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 13:21 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE10
- 1X2 odds · Břidličná 2.32 · Draw 3.43 · Šumperk 2.58
- Implied 1X2 · Břidličná 38.8% · Draw 26.3% · Šumperk 34.9%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 13:30 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Břidličná 2.32 · Draw 3.43 · Šumperk 2.58
- Implied 1X2 · Břidličná 38.8% · Draw 26.3% · Šumperk 34.9%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 13:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Břidličná win · 2–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Pass
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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4. liga - Divizie F — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bospor Bohumín | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 21 |
| 2 | Hlučín | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 18 |
| 3 | Kravare | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 16 |
| 4 | Vratimov | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 15 |
| 5 | Stonava | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 14 |
| 6 | Jiskra Rýmařov | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 13 |
| 7 | Opava II | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 8 | Nový Jičín | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 13 |
| 9 | Zabreh | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 10 | Valašské Meziříčí | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 9 |
| 11 | Šumperk | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 7 |
| 12 | Pustá Polom | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 7 |
| 13 | Frydek-Mistek B | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 6 |
| 14 | Břidličná | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 |
| 15 | Bílovec | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 |
| 16 | Frýdlant | 8 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bospor Bohumín | 7 | 27 | 7 | +20 | 21 |
| 2 | Hlučín | 8 | 19 | 11 | +8 | 18 |
| 3 | Kravare | 7 | 19 | 11 | +8 | 16 |
| 4 | Jiskra Rýmařov | 7 | 18 | 10 | +8 | 13 |
| 5 | Opava II | 8 | 18 | 15 | +3 | 13 |
| 6 | Valašské Meziříčí | 8 | 18 | 17 | +1 | 9 |
| 7 | Stonava | 8 | 16 | 11 | +5 | 14 |
| 8 | Nový Jičín | 7 | 15 | 13 | +2 | 13 |
| 9 | Vratimov | 7 | 14 | 9 | +5 | 15 |
| 10 | Frydek-Mistek B | 8 | 14 | 20 | -6 | 6 |
| 11 | Šumperk | 7 | 10 | 12 | -2 | 7 |
| 12 | Pustá Polom | 7 | 9 | 14 | -5 | 7 |
| 13 | Břidličná | 7 | 9 | 18 | -9 | 4 |
| 14 | Zabreh | 7 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 10 |
| 15 | Frýdlant | 8 | 7 | 34 | -27 | 0 |
| 16 | Bílovec | 7 | 4 | 15 | -11 | 4 |
