AI correctly predicted the Stonava win.
The match finished 4–1, validating the model's directional assessment.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Stonava Stonava ✔ Correct
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 4-1 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stonava | 38.5% | 24.8% | +13.7 pp | Model Edge |
| Draw | 29.6% | 24.1% | +5.4 pp | Model Higher |
| Hlučín | 31.9% | 51.1% | -19.1 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates Hlučín's win probability at 51.1%, compared with the model's estimate of 31.9%, a difference of 19.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Stonava win 4–1).
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Hlučín than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 5 goals materialised
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Stonava higher (57.6% vs model 38.5%, 19.1 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Stonava win 4–1).
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 13:31 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Stonava 38.5% · Draw 29.6% · Hlučín 31.9%
- xG · Stonava 1.37 — Hlučín 1.23
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 13:08 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Stonava 3.59 · Draw 3.68 · Hlučín 1.74
- Implied 1X2 · Stonava 24.8% · Draw 24.1% · Hlučín 51.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 13:31 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Stonava 3.59 · Draw 3.68 · Hlučín 1.74
- Implied 1X2 · Stonava 24.8% · Draw 24.1% · Hlučín 51.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 13:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Stonava win · 4–1
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (19 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Pricing remains divergent
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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4. liga - Divizie F — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bospor Bohumín | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 21 |
| 2 | Hlučín | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 18 |
| 3 | Kravare | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 16 |
| 4 | Vratimov | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 15 |
| 5 | Stonava | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 14 |
| 6 | Jiskra Rýmařov | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 13 |
| 7 | Opava II | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 8 | Nový Jičín | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 13 |
| 9 | Zabreh | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 10 | Valašské Meziříčí | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 9 |
| 11 | Šumperk | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 7 |
| 12 | Pustá Polom | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 7 |
| 13 | Frydek-Mistek B | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 6 |
| 14 | Břidličná | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 |
| 15 | Bílovec | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 |
| 16 | Frýdlant | 8 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bospor Bohumín | 7 | 27 | 7 | +20 | 21 |
| 2 | Hlučín | 8 | 19 | 11 | +8 | 18 |
| 3 | Kravare | 7 | 19 | 11 | +8 | 16 |
| 4 | Jiskra Rýmařov | 7 | 18 | 10 | +8 | 13 |
| 5 | Opava II | 8 | 18 | 15 | +3 | 13 |
| 6 | Valašské Meziříčí | 8 | 18 | 17 | +1 | 9 |
| 7 | Stonava | 8 | 16 | 11 | +5 | 14 |
| 8 | Nový Jičín | 7 | 15 | 13 | +2 | 13 |
| 9 | Vratimov | 7 | 14 | 9 | +5 | 15 |
| 10 | Frydek-Mistek B | 8 | 14 | 20 | -6 | 6 |
| 11 | Šumperk | 7 | 10 | 12 | -2 | 7 |
| 12 | Pustá Polom | 7 | 9 | 14 | -5 | 7 |
| 13 | Břidličná | 7 | 9 | 18 | -9 | 4 |
| 14 | Zabreh | 7 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 10 |
| 15 | Frýdlant | 8 | 7 | 34 | -27 | 0 |
| 16 | Bílovec | 7 | 4 | 15 | -11 | 4 |
