Predictions / Football / Czech-Republic. 4. liga - Divizie F / Frydek-Mistek B vs Valašské Meziříčí

Prediction Audit: Frydek-Mistek B vs Valašské Meziříčí Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

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Frydek-Mistek B
Sep 06, 2026 - 14:00
2 1.37
4 1.23
xG Accuracy: 39%
Valašské Meziříčí Valašské Meziříčí

The model missed the final outcome (Valašské Meziříčí win 2–4).

The model had projected Frydek-Mistek B at 38.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Frydek-Mistek B Valašské Meziříčí ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-4 ✖ Incorrect

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 6 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (6 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Frydek-Mistek B; match finished Valašské Meziříčí

Market lesson

The full-time result was Valašské Meziříčí win 2–4, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 31, 2026 · 07:26 UTC Forecast generated
    • xG · Frydek-Mistek B 1.37 — Valašské Meziříčí 1.23
  2. Sep 06, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result Valašské Meziříčí win · 2–4
  4. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 31, 2026 · 07:26 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6361354

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Valašské Meziříčí win · Frydek-Mistek B 2–4 Valašské Meziříčí
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: 4. liga - Divizie F
  • Fixture: Frydek-Mistek B vs Valašské Meziříčí
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-06 14:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 38.5% · Draw 29.6% · Away 31.9%
  • xG (showing): Frydek-Mistek B 1.37 — Valašské Meziříčí 1.23 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 16, 2026 (UTC)

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4. liga - Divizie F 4. liga - Divizie F — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Kravare 10 8 1 1 25
2 Bospor Bohumín 9 8 0 1 24
3 Vratimov 9 7 0 2 21
4 Hlučín 10 6 1 3 19
5 Stonava 10 5 2 3 17
6 Opava II 10 5 1 4 16
7 Jiskra Rýmařov 10 4 2 4 14
8 Nový Jičín 10 4 2 4 14
9 Valašské Meziříčí 9 3 3 3 12
10 Zabreh 9 3 2 4 11
11 Pustá Polom 9 3 1 5 10
12 Břidličná 10 3 1 6 10
13 Frydek-Mistek B 9 3 0 6 9
14 Šumperk 9 2 2 5 8
15 Bílovec 9 1 2 6 5
16 Frýdlant 10 1 0 9 3
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Bospor Bohumín 9 33 11 +22 24
2 Kravare 10 27 12 +15 25
3 Jiskra Rýmařov 10 22 18 +4 14
4 Opava II 10 22 19 +3 16
5 Stonava 10 21 16 +5 17
6 Valašské Meziříčí 9 21 17 +4 12
7 Hlučín 10 20 15 +5 19
8 Vratimov 9 19 12 +7 21
9 Nový Jičín 10 18 21 -3 14
10 Frydek-Mistek B 9 16 21 -5 9
11 Břidličná 10 14 22 -8 10
12 Pustá Polom 9 13 18 -5 10
13 Šumperk 9 12 15 -3 8
14 Zabreh 9 11 12 -1 11
15 Frýdlant 10 11 38 -27 3
16 Bílovec 9 5 18 -13 5
4. liga - Divizie F Czech-Republic. 4. liga - Divizie F Predictions