Predictions / Football / Czech-Republic. 4. liga - Divizie F / Bospor Bohumín vs Pustá Polom

Prediction Audit: Bospor Bohumín vs Pustá Polom Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Aug 30, 2026 - 14:00
4 1.48
1 1.12
xG Accuracy: 48%

AI correctly predicted the Bospor Bohumín win.

The match finished 4–1, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Bospor Bohumín Bospor Bohumín ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 4-1 ✖ Incorrect

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 5 goals materialised
  • Bospor Bohumín attacking xG significantly stronger (1.48 vs 1.12)
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (Bospor Bohumín win 4–1).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 24, 2026 · 06:55 UTC Forecast generated
    • xG · Bospor Bohumín 1.48 — Pustá Polom 1.12
  2. Aug 30, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result Bospor Bohumín win · 4–1
  4. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 24, 2026 · 06:55 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-5319651

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Bospor Bohumín win · Bospor Bohumín 4–1 Pustá Polom
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: 4. liga - Divizie F
  • Fixture: Bospor Bohumín vs Pustá Polom
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-30 14:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 43.9% · Draw 29.1% · Away 27.1%
  • xG (showing): Bospor Bohumín 1.48 — Pustá Polom 1.12 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 53.6% · No 46.4%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 53.6% · No 46.4%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.3%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 16, 2026 (UTC)

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4. liga - Divizie F 4. liga - Divizie F — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Kravare 10 8 1 1 25
2 Bospor Bohumín 9 8 0 1 24
3 Vratimov 9 7 0 2 21
4 Hlučín 10 6 1 3 19
5 Stonava 10 5 2 3 17
6 Opava II 10 5 1 4 16
7 Jiskra Rýmařov 10 4 2 4 14
8 Nový Jičín 10 4 2 4 14
9 Valašské Meziříčí 9 3 3 3 12
10 Zabreh 9 3 2 4 11
11 Pustá Polom 9 3 1 5 10
12 Břidličná 10 3 1 6 10
13 Frydek-Mistek B 9 3 0 6 9
14 Šumperk 9 2 2 5 8
15 Bílovec 9 1 2 6 5
16 Frýdlant 10 1 0 9 3
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Bospor Bohumín 9 33 11 +22 24
2 Kravare 10 27 12 +15 25
3 Jiskra Rýmařov 10 22 18 +4 14
4 Opava II 10 22 19 +3 16
5 Stonava 10 21 16 +5 17
6 Valašské Meziříčí 9 21 17 +4 12
7 Hlučín 10 20 15 +5 19
8 Vratimov 9 19 12 +7 21
9 Nový Jičín 10 18 21 -3 14
10 Frydek-Mistek B 9 16 21 -5 9
11 Břidličná 10 14 22 -8 10
12 Pustá Polom 9 13 18 -5 10
13 Šumperk 9 12 15 -3 8
14 Zabreh 9 11 12 -1 11
15 Frýdlant 10 11 38 -27 3
16 Bílovec 9 5 18 -13 5