AI correctly predicted the Tatran Všechovice win.
The match finished 6–1, validating the model's directional assessment.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (7 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Tatran Všechovice Tatran Všechovice ✔ Correct
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 2-0, 0-1 6-1 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tatran Všechovice | 44.3% | 67.7% | -23.3 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.0% | 17.8% | +11.2 pp | Model Edge |
| Šternberk | 26.6% | 14.5% | +12.1 pp | Model Edge |
The closing market estimates Tatran Všechovice's win probability at 67.7%, compared with the model's estimate of 44.3%, a difference of 23.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Tatran Všechovice win 6–1).
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 7 goals materialised
- Tatran Všechovice attacking xG significantly stronger (1.49 vs 1.11)
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (7 goals)
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Tatran Všechovice higher (67.6% vs model 44.3%, 23.3 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Tatran Všechovice win 6–1).
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 13:30 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Tatran Všechovice 44.3% · Draw 29.0% · Šternberk 26.7%
- xG · Tatran Všechovice 1.49 — Šternberk 1.11
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 13:09 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Tatran Všechovice 1.33 · Draw 5.05 · Šternberk 6.19
- Implied 1X2 · Tatran Všechovice 67.7% · Draw 17.8% · Šternberk 14.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 13:30 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Tatran Všechovice 1.33 · Draw 5.05 · Šternberk 6.19
- Implied 1X2 · Tatran Všechovice 67.7% · Draw 17.8% · Šternberk 14.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 13:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Tatran Všechovice win · 6–1
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (23 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Pricing remains divergent
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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4. liga - Divizie E — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kozlovice | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 20 |
| 2 | Strání | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 19 |
| 3 | Tatran Všechovice | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 18 |
| 4 | SK Krumvir | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 18 |
| 5 | Břeclav | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 14 |
| 6 | Hluk | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 13 |
| 7 | Sokol Lanžhot | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 12 |
| 8 | Prostejov B | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 12 |
| 9 | Holešov | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 10 |
| 10 | Šternberk | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 10 |
| 11 | Slavičín | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 10 |
| 12 | Kroměříž II | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 |
| 13 | Brumov | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 |
| 14 | Nové Sady | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 4 |
| 15 | Bzenec | 8 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 3 |
| 16 | Baťov | 8 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Strání | 7 | 29 | 11 | +18 | 19 |
| 2 | Tatran Všechovice | 7 | 26 | 8 | +18 | 18 |
| 3 | Kozlovice | 8 | 22 | 7 | +15 | 20 |
| 4 | Hluk | 8 | 20 | 11 | +9 | 13 |
| 5 | Prostejov B | 8 | 16 | 16 | 0 | 12 |
| 6 | SK Krumvir | 7 | 15 | 7 | +8 | 18 |
| 7 | Holešov | 8 | 15 | 12 | +3 | 10 |
| 8 | Šternberk | 8 | 15 | 15 | 0 | 10 |
| 9 | Slavičín | 8 | 14 | 15 | -1 | 10 |
| 10 | Břeclav | 8 | 13 | 8 | +5 | 14 |
| 11 | Sokol Lanžhot | 7 | 12 | 11 | +1 | 12 |
| 12 | Bzenec | 8 | 12 | 28 | -16 | 3 |
| 13 | Brumov | 7 | 11 | 25 | -14 | 4 |
| 14 | Nové Sady | 8 | 10 | 33 | -23 | 4 |
| 15 | Kroměříž II | 7 | 7 | 13 | -6 | 5 |
| 16 | Baťov | 8 | 7 | 24 | -17 | 0 |
