The model missed the final outcome (Šternberk win 0–6).
The model had projected Nové Sady at 37.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Nové Sady Šternberk ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-6 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nové Sady | 37.5% | 22.2% | +15.3 pp | Model Edge |
| Draw | 29.6% | 21.0% | +8.6 pp | Model Higher |
| Šternberk | 32.9% | 56.8% | -23.9 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates Šternberk's win probability at 56.8%, compared with the model's estimate of 32.9%, a difference of 23.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Šternberk win 0–6.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 6 goals materialised
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (6 goals)
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Nové Sady by 23.9 percentage points (61.5% vs model 37.5%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 05, 2026 · 14:16 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Nové Sady 37.6% · Draw 29.6% · Šternberk 32.9%
- xG · Nové Sady 1.35 — Šternberk 1.25
-
Sep 05, 2026 · 13:49 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Nové Sady 3.99 · Draw 4.22 · Šternberk 1.56
- Implied 1X2 · Nové Sady 22.2% · Draw 21.0% · Šternberk 56.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 05, 2026 · 14:16 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Nové Sady 3.99 · Draw 4.22 · Šternberk 1.56
- Implied 1X2 · Nové Sady 22.2% · Draw 21.0% · Šternberk 56.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 05, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Šternberk win · 0–6
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (24 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Pricing remains divergent
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Explore More Predictions Content
Get Premium Predictions for Nové Sady & Šternberk!
Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.
Subscribe Now
4. liga - Divizie E — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kozlovice | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 20 |
| 2 | Strání | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 19 |
| 3 | Tatran Všechovice | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 18 |
| 4 | SK Krumvir | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 18 |
| 5 | Břeclav | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 14 |
| 6 | Hluk | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 13 |
| 7 | Sokol Lanžhot | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 12 |
| 8 | Prostejov B | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 12 |
| 9 | Holešov | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 10 |
| 10 | Šternberk | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 10 |
| 11 | Slavičín | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 10 |
| 12 | Kroměříž II | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 |
| 13 | Brumov | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 |
| 14 | Nové Sady | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 4 |
| 15 | Bzenec | 8 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 3 |
| 16 | Baťov | 8 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Strání | 7 | 29 | 11 | +18 | 19 |
| 2 | Tatran Všechovice | 7 | 26 | 8 | +18 | 18 |
| 3 | Kozlovice | 8 | 22 | 7 | +15 | 20 |
| 4 | Hluk | 8 | 20 | 11 | +9 | 13 |
| 5 | Prostejov B | 8 | 16 | 16 | 0 | 12 |
| 6 | SK Krumvir | 7 | 15 | 7 | +8 | 18 |
| 7 | Holešov | 8 | 15 | 12 | +3 | 10 |
| 8 | Šternberk | 8 | 15 | 15 | 0 | 10 |
| 9 | Slavičín | 8 | 14 | 15 | -1 | 10 |
| 10 | Břeclav | 8 | 13 | 8 | +5 | 14 |
| 11 | Sokol Lanžhot | 7 | 12 | 11 | +1 | 12 |
| 12 | Bzenec | 8 | 12 | 28 | -16 | 3 |
| 13 | Brumov | 7 | 11 | 25 | -14 | 4 |
| 14 | Nové Sady | 8 | 10 | 33 | -23 | 4 |
| 15 | Kroměříž II | 7 | 7 | 13 | -6 | 5 |
| 16 | Baťov | 8 | 7 | 24 | -17 | 0 |
