The model missed the final outcome (Sparta Brno win 1–2).
The model had projected Tatran Bohunice at 37.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Tatran Bohunice Sparta Brno ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-2 ✔ Correct
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tatran Bohunice | 37.5% | 69.3% | -31.8 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 18.2% | +11.4 pp | Model Edge |
| Sparta Brno | 32.9% | 12.5% | +20.4 pp | Model Edge |
The closing market estimates Tatran Bohunice's win probability at 69.3%, compared with the model's estimate of 37.5%, a difference of 31.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Sparta Brno win 1–2.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
- Exact score 1–2 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Tatran Bohunice by 31.8 percentage points (69.3% vs model 37.5%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 25, 2026 · 14:14 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Tatran Bohunice 37.6% · Draw 29.6% · Sparta Brno 32.9%
- xG · Tatran Bohunice 1.35 — Sparta Brno 1.25
-
Sep 25, 2026 · 13:44 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Tatran Bohunice 1.28 · Draw 4.87 · Sparta Brno 7.11
- Implied 1X2 · Tatran Bohunice 69.3% · Draw 18.2% · Sparta Brno 12.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 25, 2026 · 14:14 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Tatran Bohunice 1.28 · Draw 4.87 · Sparta Brno 7.11
- Implied 1X2 · Tatran Bohunice 69.3% · Draw 18.2% · Sparta Brno 12.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 25, 2026 · 14:15 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Sparta Brno win · 1–2
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Fail
- Large market gap (32 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Market strongly disagrees on price
- Validation failed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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4. liga - Divizie D — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tatran Bohunice | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 17 |
| 2 | Znojmo | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 3 | Velká Bíteš | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 4 | Kuřim | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 13 |
| 5 | Havlíčkův Brod | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 6 | Sparta Brno | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 7 | FS Třebíč | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 12 |
| 8 | Pelhřimov | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 9 | Sokol Tasovice | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 10 |
| 10 | Žďár nad Sázavou | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 |
| 11 | Chotebor | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 12 | Bystrc Kníničky | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 7 |
| 13 | Velké Meziříčí | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 |
| 14 | Humpolec | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 |
| 15 | Ždírec nad Doubravou | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 |
| 16 | Bedrichov | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 2 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tatran Bohunice | 8 | 21 | 8 | +13 | 17 |
| 2 | Kuřim | 7 | 20 | 9 | +11 | 13 |
| 3 | Znojmo | 7 | 16 | 7 | +9 | 14 |
| 4 | Pelhřimov | 7 | 16 | 9 | +7 | 11 |
| 5 | Havlíčkův Brod | 8 | 15 | 11 | +4 | 13 |
| 6 | Žďár nad Sázavou | 8 | 14 | 15 | -1 | 8 |
| 7 | Sokol Tasovice | 7 | 12 | 8 | +4 | 10 |
| 8 | Sparta Brno | 8 | 11 | 12 | -1 | 13 |
| 9 | Ždírec nad Doubravou | 7 | 10 | 16 | -6 | 5 |
| 10 | FS Třebíč | 7 | 9 | 14 | -5 | 12 |
| 11 | Chotebor | 7 | 9 | 16 | -7 | 8 |
| 12 | Velká Bíteš | 7 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 14 |
| 13 | Bystrc Kníničky | 7 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 7 |
| 14 | Velké Meziříčí | 7 | 8 | 16 | -8 | 6 |
| 15 | Humpolec | 7 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 5 |
| 16 | Bedrichov | 7 | 5 | 22 | -17 | 2 |
