Predictions / Football / Czech-Republic. 4. liga - Divizie D / Velké Meziříčí vs Ždírec nad Doubravou

Prediction Audit: Velké Meziříčí vs Ždírec nad Doubravou Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Velké Meziříčí Velké Meziříčí
Sep 06, 2026 - 08:15
3 1.34
2 1.26
xG Accuracy: 52%
Ždírec nad Doubravou Ždírec nad Doubravou

AI correctly predicted the Velké Meziříčí win.

The match finished 3–2, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Velké Meziříčí Velké Meziříčí ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 3-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices Velké Meziříčí higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Velké Meziříčí -5.9 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Velké Meziříčí 37.1% 42.9% -5.9 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 26.4% +3.2 pp Aligned
Ždírec nad Doubravou 33.3% 30.6% +2.7 pp Aligned

The closing market estimates Velké Meziříčí's win probability at 42.9%, compared with the model's estimate of 37.1%, a difference of 5.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Velké Meziříčí win 3–2).

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Velké Meziříčí. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 5 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Velké Meziříčí higher (43.0% vs model 37.1%, 5.9 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Velké Meziříčí win 3–2).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 06, 2026 · 08:14 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Velké Meziříčí 37.0% · Draw 29.6% · Ždírec nad Doubravou 33.4%
    • xG · Velké Meziříčí 1.34 — Ždírec nad Doubravou 1.26
  2. Sep 06, 2026 · 07:44 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Velké Meziříčí 2.07 · Draw 3.36 · Ždírec nad Doubravou 2.90
    • Implied 1X2 · Velké Meziříčí 42.9% · Draw 26.4% · Ždírec nad Doubravou 30.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 06, 2026 · 08:14 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Velké Meziříčí 2.07 · Draw 3.36 · Ždírec nad Doubravou 2.90
    • Implied 1X2 · Velké Meziříčí 42.9% · Draw 26.4% · Ždírec nad Doubravou 30.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 06, 2026 · 08:15 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Velké Meziříčí win · 3–2
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 76/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 70/100
Betting Confidence 79/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 31, 2026 · 00:57 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6320646

Closing Odds 2.07
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Velké Meziříčí win · Velké Meziříčí 3–2 Ždírec nad Doubravou
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: 4. liga - Divizie D
  • Fixture: Velké Meziříčí vs Ždírec nad Doubravou
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-06 08:15:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 37.0% · Draw 29.6% · Away 33.4%
  • xG (showing): Velké Meziříčí 1.34 — Ždírec nad Doubravou 1.26 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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4. liga - Divizie D 4. liga - Divizie D — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Tatran Bohunice 8 5 2 1 17
2 Znojmo 7 4 2 1 14
3 Velká Bíteš 7 4 2 1 14
4 Kuřim 7 4 1 2 13
5 Havlíčkův Brod 8 4 1 3 13
6 Sparta Brno 8 4 1 3 13
7 FS Třebíč 7 4 0 3 12
8 Pelhřimov 7 3 2 2 11
9 Sokol Tasovice 7 2 4 1 10
10 Žďár nad Sázavou 8 2 2 4 8
11 Chotebor 7 2 2 3 8
12 Bystrc Kníničky 7 1 4 2 7
13 Velké Meziříčí 7 1 3 3 6
14 Humpolec 7 1 2 4 5
15 Ždírec nad Doubravou 7 1 2 4 5
16 Bedrichov 7 0 2 5 2
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Tatran Bohunice 8 21 8 +13 17
2 Kuřim 7 20 9 +11 13
3 Znojmo 7 16 7 +9 14
4 Pelhřimov 7 16 9 +7 11
5 Havlíčkův Brod 8 15 11 +4 13
6 Žďár nad Sázavou 8 14 15 -1 8
7 Sokol Tasovice 7 12 8 +4 10
8 Sparta Brno 8 11 12 -1 13
9 Ždírec nad Doubravou 7 10 16 -6 5
10 FS Třebíč 7 9 14 -5 12
11 Chotebor 7 9 16 -7 8
12 Velká Bíteš 7 8 6 +2 14
13 Bystrc Kníničky 7 8 9 -1 7
14 Velké Meziříčí 7 8 16 -8 6
15 Humpolec 7 6 10 -4 5
16 Bedrichov 7 5 22 -17 2
4. liga - Divizie D Czech-Republic. 4. liga - Divizie D Predictions