Predictions / Football / Czech-Republic. 4. liga - Divizie D / Ždírec nad Doubravou vs Sokol Tasovice

Prediction Audit: Ždírec nad Doubravou vs Sokol Tasovice Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Ždírec nad Doubravou Ždírec nad Doubravou
Aug 09, 2026 - 14:30
1 1.35
3 1.25
xG Accuracy: 56%
Sokol Tasovice Sokol Tasovice

The model missed the final outcome (Sokol Tasovice win 1–3).

The model had projected Ždírec nad Doubravou at 37.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Ždírec nad Doubravou Sokol Tasovice ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-3 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices Ždírec nad Doubravou higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Ždírec nad Doubravou -6.2 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Ždírec nad Doubravou 37.5% 43.8% -6.2 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 26.5% +3.1 pp Aligned
Sokol Tasovice 32.9% 29.7% +3.1 pp Aligned

The closing market estimates Ždírec nad Doubravou's win probability at 43.8%, compared with the model's estimate of 37.5%, a difference of 6.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Sokol Tasovice win 1–3.

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Ždírec nad Doubravou. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Ždírec nad Doubravou; match finished Sokol Tasovice

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Ždírec nad Doubravou by 6.2 percentage points (43.7% vs model 37.5%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 09, 2026 · 14:30 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Ždírec nad Doubravou 37.6% · Draw 29.6% · Sokol Tasovice 32.9%
    • xG · Ždírec nad Doubravou 1.35 — Sokol Tasovice 1.25
  2. Aug 09, 2026 · 14:04 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Ždírec nad Doubravou 2.03 · Draw 3.35 · Sokol Tasovice 2.99
    • Implied 1X2 · Ždírec nad Doubravou 43.8% · Draw 26.5% · Sokol Tasovice 29.7%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 09, 2026 · 14:30 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Ždírec nad Doubravou 2.03 · Draw 3.35 · Sokol Tasovice 2.99
    • Implied 1X2 · Ždírec nad Doubravou 43.8% · Draw 26.5% · Sokol Tasovice 29.7%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 09, 2026 · 14:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Sokol Tasovice win · 1–3
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 76/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 68/100
Betting Confidence 79/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 04, 2026 · 01:17 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2964794

Closing Odds 2.03
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Sokol Tasovice win · Ždírec nad Doubravou 1–3 Sokol Tasovice
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: 4. liga - Divizie D
  • Fixture: Ždírec nad Doubravou vs Sokol Tasovice
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-09 14:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 37.6% · Draw 29.6% · Away 32.9%
  • xG (showing): Ždírec nad Doubravou 1.35 — Sokol Tasovice 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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4. liga - Divizie D 4. liga - Divizie D — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Tatran Bohunice 8 5 2 1 17
2 Znojmo 7 4 2 1 14
3 Velká Bíteš 7 4 2 1 14
4 Kuřim 7 4 1 2 13
5 Havlíčkův Brod 8 4 1 3 13
6 Sparta Brno 8 4 1 3 13
7 FS Třebíč 7 4 0 3 12
8 Pelhřimov 7 3 2 2 11
9 Sokol Tasovice 7 2 4 1 10
10 Žďár nad Sázavou 8 2 2 4 8
11 Chotebor 7 2 2 3 8
12 Bystrc Kníničky 7 1 4 2 7
13 Velké Meziříčí 7 1 3 3 6
14 Humpolec 7 1 2 4 5
15 Ždírec nad Doubravou 7 1 2 4 5
16 Bedrichov 7 0 2 5 2
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Tatran Bohunice 8 21 8 +13 17
2 Kuřim 7 20 9 +11 13
3 Znojmo 7 16 7 +9 14
4 Pelhřimov 7 16 9 +7 11
5 Havlíčkův Brod 8 15 11 +4 13
6 Žďár nad Sázavou 8 14 15 -1 8
7 Sokol Tasovice 7 12 8 +4 10
8 Sparta Brno 8 11 12 -1 13
9 Ždírec nad Doubravou 7 10 16 -6 5
10 FS Třebíč 7 9 14 -5 12
11 Chotebor 7 9 16 -7 8
12 Velká Bíteš 7 8 6 +2 14
13 Bystrc Kníničky 7 8 9 -1 7
14 Velké Meziříčí 7 8 16 -8 6
15 Humpolec 7 6 10 -4 5
16 Bedrichov 7 5 22 -17 2
4. liga - Divizie D Czech-Republic. 4. liga - Divizie D Predictions