Predictions / Football / Scotland. Football League - Lowland League / Cumbernauld Colts vs Kilwinning Rangers

Prediction Audit: Cumbernauld Colts vs Kilwinning Rangers Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Cumbernauld Colts Cumbernauld Colts
Jul 28, 2026 - 18:45
2 1.34
4 1.26
xG Accuracy: 39%
Kilwinning Rangers Kilwinning Rangers

The model missed the final outcome (Kilwinning Rangers win 2–4).

The model had projected Cumbernauld Colts at 40.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Cumbernauld Colts Kilwinning Rangers ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-4 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Broadly Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned.

Largest probability gap: Draw +4.7 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Cumbernauld Colts 40.5% 44.5% -4.0 pp Aligned
Draw 27.9% 23.2% +4.7 pp Aligned
Kilwinning Rangers 31.6% 32.4% -0.8 pp Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Kilwinning Rangers win 2–4.

Market Assessment

The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.

  • Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 6 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (6 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Cumbernauld Colts; match finished Kilwinning Rangers

Market lesson

The full-time result was Kilwinning Rangers win 2–4, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jul 28, 2026 · 19:35 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Cumbernauld Colts 40.5% · Draw 27.9% · Kilwinning Rangers 31.6%
    • xG · Cumbernauld Colts 1.34 — Kilwinning Rangers 1.26
  2. Jul 28, 2026 · 18:16 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Cumbernauld Colts 1.83 · Draw 3.84 · Kilwinning Rangers 3.33
    • Implied 1X2 · Cumbernauld Colts 49.4% · Draw 23.5% · Kilwinning Rangers 27.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jul 28, 2026 · 18:48 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Cumbernauld Colts 2.06 · Draw 3.95 · Kilwinning Rangers 2.83
    • Implied 1X2 · Cumbernauld Colts 44.5% · Draw 23.2% · Kilwinning Rangers 32.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jul 28, 2026 · 18:45 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Kilwinning Rangers win · 2–4
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 77/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 76/100
Betting Confidence 80/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 14:02 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1455203

Closing Odds 3.95
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Kilwinning Rangers win · Cumbernauld Colts 2–4 Kilwinning Rangers
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Football League - Lowland League
  • Fixture: Cumbernauld Colts vs Kilwinning Rangers
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-28 18:45:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 40.5% · Draw 27.9% · Away 31.6%
  • xG (showing): Cumbernauld Colts 1.34 — Kilwinning Rangers 1.26 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 21, 2026 (UTC)

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Football League - Lowland League Football League - Lowland League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Kilwinning Rangers 9 7 0 2 21
2 Tranent Juniors 7 7 0 0 21
3 Auchinleck Talbot 9 6 1 2 19
4 Clydebank 8 6 1 1 19
5 Broxburn Athletic 7 6 1 0 19
6 Pollok 8 6 1 1 19
7 Brechin 7 6 1 0 19
8 Largs Thistle 9 6 1 2 19
9 Hill Of Beath Hawthorn 8 6 0 2 18
10 Celtic II 9 5 2 2 17
11 Linlithgow Rose 8 5 1 2 16
12 Lochee United 8 5 1 2 16
13 Caledonian Braves 9 5 1 3 16
14 Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic 8 5 0 3 15
15 Johnstone Burgh 8 4 3 1 15
16 Cumnock Juniors 8 4 2 2 14
17 Civil Service Strollers 8 4 1 3 13
18 Troon FC 9 4 0 5 12
19 Cumbernauld Colts 9 2 4 3 10
20 Bo'ness United 8 3 1 4 10
21 East Stirlingshire 8 3 1 4 10
22 Beith 9 2 2 5 8
23 Musselburgh Athletic 8 2 1 5 7
24 Cowdenbeath 8 2 0 6 6
25 Albion Rovers 8 1 2 5 5
26 Berwick Rangers 8 1 1 6 4
27 Renfrew 8 1 1 6 4
28 Gretna 2008 9 1 1 7 4
29 Stirling University 8 1 0 7 3
30 Gala Fairydean Rovers 8 1 0 7 3
31 Dunipace 7 0 1 6 1
32 Newton Stewart 7 0 1 6 1
33 Dalbeattie Star 8 0 1 7 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Auchinleck Talbot 9 31 9 +22 19
2 Clydebank 8 30 16 +14 19
3 Kilwinning Rangers 9 28 13 +15 21
4 Celtic II 9 27 16 +11 17
5 Caledonian Braves 9 26 21 +5 16
6 Linlithgow Rose 8 21 11 +10 16
7 Cumnock Juniors 8 21 14 +7 14
8 Pollok 8 19 10 +9 19
9 Lochee United 8 19 12 +7 16
10 Johnstone Burgh 8 19 13 +6 15
11 Cumbernauld Colts 9 19 21 -2 10
12 Troon FC 9 18 15 +3 12
13 Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic 8 17 8 +9 15
14 Brechin 7 17 9 +8 19
15 Gretna 2008 9 17 31 -14 4
16 Tranent Juniors 7 15 3 +12 21
17 Bo'ness United 8 14 18 -4 10
18 Broxburn Athletic 7 13 3 +10 19
19 Largs Thistle 9 13 9 +4 19
20 Hill Of Beath Hawthorn 8 13 10 +3 18
21 East Stirlingshire 8 13 17 -4 10
22 Beith 9 13 24 -11 8
23 Renfrew 8 13 26 -13 4
24 Civil Service Strollers 8 12 12 0 13
25 Cowdenbeath 8 10 14 -4 6
26 Musselburgh Athletic 8 9 14 -5 7
27 Berwick Rangers 8 9 17 -8 4
28 Stirling University 8 8 18 -10 3
29 Gala Fairydean Rovers 8 8 20 -12 3
30 Albion Rovers 8 7 15 -8 5
31 Newton Stewart 7 7 31 -24 1
32 Dunipace 7 4 16 -12 1
33 Dalbeattie Star 8 4 28 -24 1
Football League - Lowland League Scotland. Football League - Lowland League Predictions