AI correctly predicted the Pollok win.
The match finished 2–0, validating the model's directional assessment.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Pollok Pollok ✔ Correct
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-0 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pollok | 36.1% | 45.3% | -9.2 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 24.9% | +4.7 pp | Aligned |
| Troon FC | 34.2% | 29.8% | +4.5 pp | Aligned |
The closing market estimates Pollok's win probability at 45.3%, compared with the model's estimate of 36.1%, a difference of 9.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE10.
After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Pollok win 2–0).
Market Assessment
The market and model broadly agree on Pollok. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Pollok higher (45.3% vs model 36.1%, 9.2 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Pollok win 2–0).
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Jul 25, 2026 · 21:56 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Pollok 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Troon FC 34.2%
- xG · Pollok 1.32 — Troon FC 1.28
-
Jul 25, 2026 · 13:40 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Pollok 2.00 · Draw 3.63 · Troon FC 3.04
- Implied 1X2 · Pollok 45.3% · Draw 24.9% · Troon FC 29.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jul 25, 2026 · 14:01 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE10
- 1X2 odds · Pollok 2.00 · Draw 3.63 · Troon FC 3.04
- Implied 1X2 · Pollok 45.3% · Draw 24.9% · Troon FC 29.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jul 25, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Pollok win · 2–0
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Pass
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Football League - Lowland League — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kilwinning Rangers | 11 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 27 |
| 2 | Tranent Juniors | 9 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 25 |
| 3 | Pollok | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 23 |
| 4 | Largs Thistle | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 23 |
| 5 | Auchinleck Talbot | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 22 |
| 6 | Linlithgow Rose | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 22 |
| 7 | Brechin | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 22 |
| 8 | Broxburn Athletic | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 22 |
| 9 | Hill Of Beath Hawthorn | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 22 |
| 10 | Clydebank | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 20 |
| 11 | Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic | 9 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 18 |
| 12 | Johnstone Burgh | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 18 |
| 13 | Celtic II | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 17 |
| 14 | Cumnock Juniors | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 17 |
| 15 | Lochee United | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 17 |
| 16 | Caledonian Braves | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 16 |
| 17 | Civil Service Strollers | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 16 |
| 18 | Bo'ness United | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 13 |
| 19 | Troon FC | 11 | 4 | 0 | 7 | 12 |
| 20 | Cumbernauld Colts | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 10 |
| 21 | East Stirlingshire | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 10 |
| 22 | Gretna 2008 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 10 |
| 23 | Cowdenbeath | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 9 |
| 24 | Musselburgh Athletic | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 9 |
| 25 | Beith | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 9 |
| 26 | Albion Rovers | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 8 |
| 27 | Renfrew | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 7 |
| 28 | Berwick Rangers | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 5 |
| 29 | Dunipace | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 4 |
| 30 | Newton Stewart | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 4 |
| 31 | Gala Fairydean Rovers | 9 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 3 |
| 32 | Stirling University | 10 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 3 |
| 33 | Dalbeattie Star | 10 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 1 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Auchinleck Talbot | 11 | 35 | 12 | +23 | 22 |
| 2 | Kilwinning Rangers | 11 | 35 | 15 | +20 | 27 |
| 3 | Clydebank | 9 | 32 | 18 | +14 | 20 |
| 4 | Linlithgow Rose | 10 | 29 | 12 | +17 | 22 |
| 5 | Celtic II | 10 | 28 | 19 | +9 | 17 |
| 6 | Pollok | 10 | 26 | 13 | +13 | 23 |
| 7 | Caledonian Braves | 9 | 26 | 21 | +5 | 16 |
| 8 | Cumnock Juniors | 10 | 25 | 18 | +7 | 17 |
| 9 | Gretna 2008 | 11 | 25 | 33 | -8 | 10 |
| 10 | Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic | 9 | 23 | 9 | +14 | 18 |
| 11 | Johnstone Burgh | 10 | 22 | 16 | +6 | 18 |
| 12 | Lochee United | 10 | 21 | 16 | +5 | 17 |
| 13 | Brechin | 9 | 20 | 10 | +10 | 22 |
| 14 | Troon FC | 11 | 20 | 23 | -3 | 12 |
| 15 | Cumbernauld Colts | 10 | 20 | 23 | -3 | 10 |
| 16 | Tranent Juniors | 9 | 18 | 5 | +13 | 25 |
| 17 | Renfrew | 10 | 18 | 29 | -11 | 7 |
| 18 | Bo'ness United | 10 | 17 | 22 | -5 | 13 |
| 19 | Civil Service Strollers | 10 | 16 | 16 | 0 | 16 |
| 20 | Broxburn Athletic | 9 | 15 | 8 | +7 | 22 |
| 21 | Largs Thistle | 11 | 15 | 10 | +5 | 23 |
| 22 | Hill Of Beath Hawthorn | 10 | 15 | 11 | +4 | 22 |
| 23 | East Stirlingshire | 10 | 14 | 21 | -7 | 10 |
| 24 | Beith | 11 | 14 | 28 | -14 | 9 |
| 25 | Cowdenbeath | 9 | 13 | 15 | -2 | 9 |
| 26 | Stirling University | 10 | 11 | 27 | -16 | 3 |
| 27 | Musselburgh Athletic | 10 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 9 |
| 28 | Albion Rovers | 10 | 10 | 21 | -11 | 8 |
| 29 | Berwick Rangers | 9 | 9 | 17 | -8 | 5 |
| 30 | Gala Fairydean Rovers | 9 | 9 | 22 | -13 | 3 |
| 31 | Newton Stewart | 8 | 9 | 32 | -23 | 4 |
| 32 | Dunipace | 9 | 6 | 20 | -14 | 4 |
| 33 | Dalbeattie Star | 10 | 6 | 35 | -29 | 1 |
