The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).
The model had projected Zlín II at 36.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Zlín II Draw ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-1 ✔ Correct
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zlín II | 36.6% | 45.9% | -9.3 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 25.4% | +4.2 pp | Aligned |
| Uherský Brod | 33.8% | 28.7% | +5.1 pp | Model Higher |
The closing market estimates Zlín II's win probability at 45.9%, compared with the model's estimate of 36.6%, a difference of 9.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Draw 1–1.
Market Assessment
The market and model broadly agree on Zlín II. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- 1X2: model leaned Zlín II; match finished Draw
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Zlín II by 9.3 percentage points (45.9% vs model 36.6%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 02, 2026 · 14:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Zlín II 36.6% · Draw 29.6% · Uherský Brod 33.8%
- xG · Zlín II 1.33 — Uherský Brod 1.27
-
Sep 02, 2026 · 14:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Zlín II 1.97 · Draw 3.56 · Uherský Brod 3.15
- Implied 1X2 · Zlín II 45.9% · Draw 25.4% · Uherský Brod 28.7%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 02, 2026 · 14:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Zlín II 1.97 · Draw 3.56 · Uherský Brod 3.15
- Implied 1X2 · Zlín II 45.9% · Draw 25.4% · Uherský Brod 28.7%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 02, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Pass
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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3. liga - MSFL — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Líšeň II | 10 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 24 |
| 2 | Zbrojovka Brno II | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 22 |
| 3 | Frýdek-Místek | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 18 |
| 4 | Uničov | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 17 |
| 5 | Sigma Olomouc II | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 16 |
| 6 | Hranice | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 16 |
| 7 | Vítkovice | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 16 |
| 8 | Unie Hlubina | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 15 |
| 9 | Slovácko II | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 15 |
| 10 | Uherský Brod | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 14 |
| 11 | Vrchovina | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 14 |
| 12 | Zlín II | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 12 |
| 13 | Hodonín | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 11 |
| 14 | Karviná II | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 11 |
| 15 | Blansko | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 7 |
| 16 | Vsetín | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 7 |
| 17 | Havířov | 9 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 4 |
| 18 | Polanka nad Odrou | 9 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 3 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Unie Hlubina | 10 | 25 | 18 | +7 | 15 |
| 2 | Zbrojovka Brno II | 10 | 23 | 15 | +8 | 22 |
| 3 | Líšeň II | 10 | 19 | 3 | +16 | 24 |
| 4 | Sigma Olomouc II | 10 | 18 | 12 | +6 | 16 |
| 5 | Uničov | 9 | 17 | 13 | +4 | 17 |
| 6 | Slovácko II | 10 | 16 | 11 | +5 | 15 |
| 7 | Uherský Brod | 10 | 16 | 16 | 0 | 14 |
| 8 | Frýdek-Místek | 9 | 15 | 7 | +8 | 18 |
| 9 | Karviná II | 10 | 15 | 20 | -5 | 11 |
| 10 | Blansko | 10 | 15 | 27 | -12 | 7 |
| 11 | Hranice | 10 | 14 | 9 | +5 | 16 |
| 12 | Zlín II | 10 | 12 | 16 | -4 | 12 |
| 13 | Vítkovice | 10 | 11 | 7 | +4 | 16 |
| 14 | Vrchovina | 10 | 11 | 16 | -5 | 14 |
| 15 | Hodonín | 10 | 10 | 12 | -2 | 11 |
| 16 | Vsetín | 10 | 10 | 24 | -14 | 7 |
| 17 | Polanka nad Odrou | 9 | 5 | 14 | -9 | 3 |
| 18 | Havířov | 9 | 4 | 16 | -12 | 4 |
