Predictions / Football / Czech-Republic. 3. liga - MSFL / Slovácko II vs Vrchovina

Prediction Audit: Slovácko II vs Vrchovina Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Slovácko II Slovácko II
Sep 02, 2026 - 14:30
3 1.27
1 1.33
xG Accuracy: 57%
Vrchovina Vrchovina

The model missed the final outcome (Slovácko II win 3–1).

The model had projected Vrchovina at 36.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Vrchovina Slovácko II ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 3-1 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Slovácko II higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Slovácko II -23.1 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Slovácko II 33.8% 56.8% -23.1 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 20.8% +8.9 pp Model Higher
Vrchovina 36.6% 22.4% +14.2 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Slovácko II's win probability at 56.8%, compared with the model's estimate of 33.8%, a difference of 23.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Slovácko II win 3–1.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Vrchovina; match finished Slovácko II

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Vrchovina by 23.1 percentage points (59.7% vs model 36.6%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 02, 2026 · 14:29 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Slovácko II 33.8% · Draw 29.6% · Vrchovina 36.6%
    • xG · Slovácko II 1.27 — Vrchovina 1.33
  2. Sep 02, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Slovácko II 1.59 · Draw 4.35 · Vrchovina 4.03
    • Implied 1X2 · Slovácko II 56.8% · Draw 20.8% · Vrchovina 22.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 02, 2026 · 14:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Slovácko II 1.59 · Draw 4.35 · Vrchovina 4.03
    • Implied 1X2 · Slovácko II 56.8% · Draw 20.8% · Vrchovina 22.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 02, 2026 · 14:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Slovácko II win · 3–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 51/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (23 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Monitoring Confidence 14/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 27, 2026 · 01:53 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-5621064

Closing Odds 1.59
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Slovácko II win · Slovácko II 3–1 Vrchovina
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: 3. liga - MSFL
  • Fixture: Slovácko II vs Vrchovina
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-02 14:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 33.8% · Draw 29.6% · Away 36.6%
  • xG (showing): Slovácko II 1.27 — Vrchovina 1.33 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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3. liga - MSFL 3. liga - MSFL — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Líšeň II 10 7 3 0 24
2 Zbrojovka Brno II 10 7 1 2 22
3 Frýdek-Místek 9 5 3 1 18
4 Uničov 9 5 2 2 17
5 Sigma Olomouc II 10 5 1 4 16
6 Hranice 10 5 1 4 16
7 Vítkovice 10 4 4 2 16
8 Unie Hlubina 10 4 3 3 15
9 Slovácko II 10 4 3 3 15
10 Uherský Brod 10 4 2 4 14
11 Vrchovina 10 4 2 4 14
12 Zlín II 10 3 3 4 12
13 Hodonín 10 3 2 5 11
14 Karviná II 10 3 2 5 11
15 Blansko 10 1 4 5 7
16 Vsetín 10 2 1 7 7
17 Havířov 9 0 4 5 4
18 Polanka nad Odrou 9 0 3 6 3
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Unie Hlubina 10 25 18 +7 15
2 Zbrojovka Brno II 10 23 15 +8 22
3 Líšeň II 10 19 3 +16 24
4 Sigma Olomouc II 10 18 12 +6 16
5 Uničov 9 17 13 +4 17
6 Slovácko II 10 16 11 +5 15
7 Uherský Brod 10 16 16 0 14
8 Frýdek-Místek 9 15 7 +8 18
9 Karviná II 10 15 20 -5 11
10 Blansko 10 15 27 -12 7
11 Hranice 10 14 9 +5 16
12 Zlín II 10 12 16 -4 12
13 Vítkovice 10 11 7 +4 16
14 Vrchovina 10 11 16 -5 14
15 Hodonín 10 10 12 -2 11
16 Vsetín 10 10 24 -14 7
17 Polanka nad Odrou 9 5 14 -9 3
18 Havířov 9 4 16 -12 4
3. liga - MSFL Czech-Republic. 3. liga - MSFL Predictions