Predictions / Football / Czech-Republic. 3. liga - MSFL / Zlín II vs Vítkovice

Prediction Audit: Zlín II vs Vítkovice Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Zlín II Zlín II
Sep 25, 2026 - 13:30
0 1.23
3 1.37
xG Accuracy: 46%
Vítkovice Vítkovice

AI correctly predicted the Vítkovice win.

The match finished 0–3, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Vítkovice Vítkovice ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-3 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Zlín II higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Zlín II -11.8 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Zlín II 31.9% 43.8% -11.8 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 23.4% +6.2 pp Model Higher
Vítkovice 38.5% 32.8% +5.7 pp Model Higher

The closing market estimates Zlín II's win probability at 43.8%, compared with the model's estimate of 31.9%, a difference of 11.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Vítkovice win 0–3).

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Zlín II than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Vítkovice higher (50.4% vs model 38.5%, 11.8 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Vítkovice win 0–3).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 25, 2026 · 13:29 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Zlín II 31.9% · Draw 29.6% · Vítkovice 38.5%
    • xG · Zlín II 1.23 — Vítkovice 1.37
  2. Sep 25, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Zlín II 2.09 · Draw 3.91 · Vítkovice 2.79
    • Implied 1X2 · Zlín II 43.8% · Draw 23.4% · Vítkovice 32.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 25, 2026 · 13:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Zlín II 2.09 · Draw 3.91 · Vítkovice 2.79
    • Implied 1X2 · Zlín II 43.8% · Draw 23.4% · Vítkovice 32.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 25, 2026 · 13:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Vítkovice win · 0–3
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (12 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 14/100
Monitoring Confidence 20/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 19, 2026 · 00:50 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-9562484

Closing Odds 2.09
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Vítkovice win · Zlín II 0–3 Vítkovice
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: 3. liga - MSFL
  • Fixture: Zlín II vs Vítkovice
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-25 13:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 31.9% · Draw 29.6% · Away 38.5%
  • xG (showing): Zlín II 1.23 — Vítkovice 1.37 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 43.0% · Probability edge: +8.8 pts · Est. EV: +14.0%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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3. liga - MSFL 3. liga - MSFL — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Líšeň II 10 7 3 0 24
2 Zbrojovka Brno II 10 7 1 2 22
3 Frýdek-Místek 9 5 3 1 18
4 Uničov 9 5 2 2 17
5 Sigma Olomouc II 10 5 1 4 16
6 Hranice 10 5 1 4 16
7 Vítkovice 10 4 4 2 16
8 Unie Hlubina 10 4 3 3 15
9 Slovácko II 10 4 3 3 15
10 Uherský Brod 10 4 2 4 14
11 Vrchovina 10 4 2 4 14
12 Zlín II 10 3 3 4 12
13 Hodonín 10 3 2 5 11
14 Karviná II 10 3 2 5 11
15 Blansko 10 1 4 5 7
16 Vsetín 10 2 1 7 7
17 Havířov 9 0 4 5 4
18 Polanka nad Odrou 9 0 3 6 3
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Unie Hlubina 10 25 18 +7 15
2 Zbrojovka Brno II 10 23 15 +8 22
3 Líšeň II 10 19 3 +16 24
4 Sigma Olomouc II 10 18 12 +6 16
5 Uničov 9 17 13 +4 17
6 Slovácko II 10 16 11 +5 15
7 Uherský Brod 10 16 16 0 14
8 Frýdek-Místek 9 15 7 +8 18
9 Karviná II 10 15 20 -5 11
10 Blansko 10 15 27 -12 7
11 Hranice 10 14 9 +5 16
12 Zlín II 10 12 16 -4 12
13 Vítkovice 10 11 7 +4 16
14 Vrchovina 10 11 16 -5 14
15 Hodonín 10 10 12 -2 11
16 Vsetín 10 10 24 -14 7
17 Polanka nad Odrou 9 5 14 -9 3
18 Havířov 9 4 16 -12 4
3. liga - MSFL Czech-Republic. 3. liga - MSFL Predictions