Prediction Audit: Uherský Brod vs Sigma Olomouc II Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Uherský Brod

Sep 26, 2026 - 13:30

2 1.16

1 1.44

xG Accuracy: 70%

Sigma Olomouc II

The model missed the final outcome (Uherský Brod win 2–1).

The model had projected Sigma Olomouc II at 41.9%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Sigma Olomouc II Uherský Brod ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-2 2-1 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
Uherský Brod	28.8%	23.8%	+5.1 pp	Model Higher
Draw	29.3%	23.9%	+5.4 pp	Model Higher
Sigma Olomouc II	41.9%	52.3%	-10.4 pp	Market Higher

The closing market estimates Sigma Olomouc II's win probability at 52.3%, compared with the model's estimate of 41.9%, a difference of 10.4 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Uherský Brod win 2–1.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Sigma Olomouc II than the current fair estimate.

Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised

What failed

Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Sigma Olomouc II by 10.4 percentage points (52.3% vs model 41.9%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Sep 26, 2026 · 13:31 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Uherský Brod 28.8% · Draw 29.3% · Sigma Olomouc II 41.9%
- xG · Uherský Brod 1.16 — Sigma Olomouc II 1.44
Sep 26, 2026 · 13:08 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Uherský Brod 3.81 · Draw 3.78 · Sigma Olomouc II 1.73
- Implied 1X2 · Uherský Brod 23.8% · Draw 23.9% · Sigma Olomouc II 52.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Sep 26, 2026 · 13:31 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Uherský Brod 3.81 · Draw 3.78 · Sigma Olomouc II 1.73
- Implied 1X2 · Uherský Brod 23.8% · Draw 23.9% · Sigma Olomouc II 52.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Sep 26, 2026 · 13:30 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Uherský Brod win · 2–1
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor

Historical Decision Monitor

Outcome Missed

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 58/100 · Moderate

Validation: Warning
Large market gap (10 pp)

Evidence ★★★★★

No strong statistical edge
Market has already priced much of the edge
Validation warning

Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 47/100

Betting Confidence 46/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 21, 2026 · 01:30 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10093106

Closing Odds 1.73

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Uherský Brod win · Uherský Brod 2–1 Sigma Olomouc II

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: 3. liga - MSFL
Fixture: Uherský Brod vs Sigma Olomouc II
Kickoff: 2026-09-26 13:30:00
1X2 (model): Home 28.8% · Draw 29.3% · Away 41.9%
xG (showing): Uherský Brod 1.16 — Sigma Olomouc II 1.44 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
Model: 51.8% · Implied: 41.1% · Probability edge: +10.7 pts · Est. EV: +23.3%
BTTS (model): Yes 54.0% · No 46.0%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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3. liga - MSFL — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Líšeň II	10	7	3	0	24
2	Zbrojovka Brno II	10	7	1	2	22
3	Frýdek-Místek	9	5	3	1	18
4	Uničov	9	5	2	2	17
5	Sigma Olomouc II	10	5	1	4	16
6	Hranice	10	5	1	4	16
7	Vítkovice	10	4	4	2	16
8	Unie Hlubina	10	4	3	3	15
9	Slovácko II	10	4	3	3	15
10	Uherský Brod	10	4	2	4	14
11	Vrchovina	10	4	2	4	14
12	Zlín II	10	3	3	4	12
13	Hodonín	10	3	2	5	11
14	Karviná II	10	3	2	5	11
15	Blansko	10	1	4	5	7
16	Vsetín	10	2	1	7	7
17	Havířov	9	0	4	5	4
18	Polanka nad Odrou	9	0	3	6	3

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Unie Hlubina	10	25	18	+7	15
2	Zbrojovka Brno II	10	23	15	+8	22
3	Líšeň II	10	19	3	+16	24
4	Sigma Olomouc II	10	18	12	+6	16
5	Uničov	9	17	13	+4	17
6	Slovácko II	10	16	11	+5	15
7	Uherský Brod	10	16	16	0	14
8	Frýdek-Místek	9	15	7	+8	18
9	Karviná II	10	15	20	-5	11
10	Blansko	10	15	27	-12	7
11	Hranice	10	14	9	+5	16
12	Zlín II	10	12	16	-4	12
13	Vítkovice	10	11	7	+4	16
14	Vrchovina	10	11	16	-5	14
15	Hodonín	10	10	12	-2	11
16	Vsetín	10	10	24	-14	7
17	Polanka nad Odrou	9	5	14	-9	3
18	Havířov	9	4	16	-12	4