AI correctly predicted the Hodonín win.
The match finished 2–0, validating the model's directional assessment.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Hodonín Hodonín ✔ Correct
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-0 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hodonín | 39.9% | 60.2% | -20.3 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.5% | 21.9% | +7.6 pp | Model Higher |
| Vsetín | 30.6% | 17.9% | +12.7 pp | Model Edge |
The closing market estimates Hodonín's win probability at 60.2%, compared with the model's estimate of 39.9%, a difference of 20.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Hodonín win 2–0).
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Hodonín higher (60.2% vs model 39.9%, 20.3 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Hodonín win 2–0).
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 13:31 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Hodonín 40.0% · Draw 29.5% · Vsetín 30.6%
- xG · Hodonín 1.40 — Vsetín 1.20
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 13:08 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Hodonín 1.49 · Draw 4.21 · Vsetín 5.02
- Implied 1X2 · Hodonín 60.6% · Draw 21.4% · Vsetín 18.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 13:31 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Hodonín 1.52 · Draw 4.19 · Vsetín 5.12
- Implied 1X2 · Hodonín 60.2% · Draw 21.9% · Vsetín 17.9%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 13:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Hodonín win · 2–0
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (20 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Pricing remains divergent
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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3. liga - MSFL — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Líšeň II | 10 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 24 |
| 2 | Zbrojovka Brno II | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 22 |
| 3 | Frýdek-Místek | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 18 |
| 4 | Uničov | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 17 |
| 5 | Sigma Olomouc II | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 16 |
| 6 | Hranice | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 16 |
| 7 | Vítkovice | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 16 |
| 8 | Unie Hlubina | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 15 |
| 9 | Slovácko II | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 15 |
| 10 | Uherský Brod | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 14 |
| 11 | Vrchovina | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 14 |
| 12 | Zlín II | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 12 |
| 13 | Hodonín | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 11 |
| 14 | Karviná II | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 11 |
| 15 | Blansko | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 7 |
| 16 | Vsetín | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 7 |
| 17 | Havířov | 9 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 4 |
| 18 | Polanka nad Odrou | 9 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 3 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Unie Hlubina | 10 | 25 | 18 | +7 | 15 |
| 2 | Zbrojovka Brno II | 10 | 23 | 15 | +8 | 22 |
| 3 | Líšeň II | 10 | 19 | 3 | +16 | 24 |
| 4 | Sigma Olomouc II | 10 | 18 | 12 | +6 | 16 |
| 5 | Uničov | 9 | 17 | 13 | +4 | 17 |
| 6 | Slovácko II | 10 | 16 | 11 | +5 | 15 |
| 7 | Uherský Brod | 10 | 16 | 16 | 0 | 14 |
| 8 | Frýdek-Místek | 9 | 15 | 7 | +8 | 18 |
| 9 | Karviná II | 10 | 15 | 20 | -5 | 11 |
| 10 | Blansko | 10 | 15 | 27 | -12 | 7 |
| 11 | Hranice | 10 | 14 | 9 | +5 | 16 |
| 12 | Zlín II | 10 | 12 | 16 | -4 | 12 |
| 13 | Vítkovice | 10 | 11 | 7 | +4 | 16 |
| 14 | Vrchovina | 10 | 11 | 16 | -5 | 14 |
| 15 | Hodonín | 10 | 10 | 12 | -2 | 11 |
| 16 | Vsetín | 10 | 10 | 24 | -14 | 7 |
| 17 | Polanka nad Odrou | 9 | 5 | 14 | -9 | 3 |
| 18 | Havířov | 9 | 4 | 16 | -12 | 4 |
