Predictions / Football / Czech-Republic. 3. liga - MSFL / Uherský Brod vs Frýdek-Místek

Prediction Audit: Uherský Brod vs Frýdek-Místek Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Uherský Brod Uherský Brod
Sep 12, 2026 - 14:00
1 1.25
3 1.35
xG Accuracy: 59%
Frýdek-Místek Frýdek-Místek

AI correctly predicted the Frýdek-Místek win.

The match finished 1–3, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Frýdek-Místek Frýdek-Místek ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-3 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices Frýdek-Místek higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Frýdek-Místek -9.6 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Uherský Brod 32.9% 27.0% +5.9 pp Model Higher
Draw 29.6% 25.9% +3.7 pp Aligned
Frýdek-Místek 37.5% 47.1% -9.6 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Frýdek-Místek's win probability at 47.1%, compared with the model's estimate of 37.5%, a difference of 9.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Frýdek-Místek win 1–3).

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Frýdek-Místek. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Frýdek-Místek higher (47.1% vs model 37.5%, 9.6 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Frýdek-Místek win 1–3).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 12, 2026 · 14:06 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Uherský Brod 32.9% · Draw 29.6% · Frýdek-Místek 37.6%
    • xG · Uherský Brod 1.25 — Frýdek-Místek 1.35
  2. Sep 12, 2026 · 13:42 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Uherský Brod 3.35 · Draw 3.49 · Frýdek-Místek 1.92
    • Implied 1X2 · Uherský Brod 27.0% · Draw 25.9% · Frýdek-Místek 47.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 12, 2026 · 14:06 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
    • 1X2 odds · Uherský Brod 3.35 · Draw 3.49 · Frýdek-Místek 1.92
    • Implied 1X2 · Uherský Brod 27.0% · Draw 25.9% · Frýdek-Místek 47.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 12, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Frýdek-Místek win · 1–3
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 74/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 52/100
Betting Confidence 77/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 07, 2026 · 01:49 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7444989

Closing Odds 1.92
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Frýdek-Místek win · Uherský Brod 1–3 Frýdek-Místek
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: 3. liga - MSFL
  • Fixture: Uherský Brod vs Frýdek-Místek
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-12 14:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 32.9% · Draw 29.6% · Away 37.6%
  • xG (showing): Uherský Brod 1.25 — Frýdek-Místek 1.35 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 47.9% · Probability edge: +3.9 pts · Est. EV: +3.6%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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3. liga - MSFL 3. liga - MSFL — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Líšeň II 10 7 3 0 24
2 Zbrojovka Brno II 10 7 1 2 22
3 Frýdek-Místek 9 5 3 1 18
4 Uničov 9 5 2 2 17
5 Sigma Olomouc II 10 5 1 4 16
6 Hranice 10 5 1 4 16
7 Vítkovice 10 4 4 2 16
8 Unie Hlubina 10 4 3 3 15
9 Slovácko II 10 4 3 3 15
10 Uherský Brod 10 4 2 4 14
11 Vrchovina 10 4 2 4 14
12 Zlín II 10 3 3 4 12
13 Hodonín 10 3 2 5 11
14 Karviná II 10 3 2 5 11
15 Blansko 10 1 4 5 7
16 Vsetín 10 2 1 7 7
17 Havířov 9 0 4 5 4
18 Polanka nad Odrou 9 0 3 6 3
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Unie Hlubina 10 25 18 +7 15
2 Zbrojovka Brno II 10 23 15 +8 22
3 Líšeň II 10 19 3 +16 24
4 Sigma Olomouc II 10 18 12 +6 16
5 Uničov 9 17 13 +4 17
6 Slovácko II 10 16 11 +5 15
7 Uherský Brod 10 16 16 0 14
8 Frýdek-Místek 9 15 7 +8 18
9 Karviná II 10 15 20 -5 11
10 Blansko 10 15 27 -12 7
11 Hranice 10 14 9 +5 16
12 Zlín II 10 12 16 -4 12
13 Vítkovice 10 11 7 +4 16
14 Vrchovina 10 11 16 -5 14
15 Hodonín 10 10 12 -2 11
16 Vsetín 10 10 24 -14 7
17 Polanka nad Odrou 9 5 14 -9 3
18 Havířov 9 4 16 -12 4
3. liga - MSFL Czech-Republic. 3. liga - MSFL Predictions