Prediction Audit: Uherský Brod vs Vsetín Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Aug 29, 2026 - 14:30
2 1.31
1 1.29
xG Accuracy: 76%

AI correctly predicted the Uherský Brod win.

The match finished 2–1, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Uherský Brod Uherský Brod ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-1 ✔ Correct

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Exact score 2–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)

Market lesson

The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (Uherský Brod win 2–1).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 29, 2026 · 14:04 UTC Forecast generated
    • xG · Uherský Brod 1.31 — Vsetín 1.29
  2. Aug 29, 2026 · 14:30 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result Uherský Brod win · 2–1
  4. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 23, 2026 · 03:25 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-5146594

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Uherský Brod win · Uherský Brod 2–1 Vsetín
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: 3. liga - MSFL
  • Fixture: Uherský Brod vs Vsetín
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-29 14:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 35.6% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.7%
  • xG (showing): Uherský Brod 1.31 — Vsetín 1.29 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None (actionable) — best tracked EV is about +1.0%, still below the +2.0% minimum for a headline / default stake (no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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3. liga - MSFL 3. liga - MSFL — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Líšeň II 10 7 3 0 24
2 Zbrojovka Brno II 10 7 1 2 22
3 Frýdek-Místek 9 5 3 1 18
4 Uničov 9 5 2 2 17
5 Sigma Olomouc II 10 5 1 4 16
6 Hranice 10 5 1 4 16
7 Vítkovice 10 4 4 2 16
8 Unie Hlubina 10 4 3 3 15
9 Slovácko II 10 4 3 3 15
10 Uherský Brod 10 4 2 4 14
11 Vrchovina 10 4 2 4 14
12 Zlín II 10 3 3 4 12
13 Hodonín 10 3 2 5 11
14 Karviná II 10 3 2 5 11
15 Blansko 10 1 4 5 7
16 Vsetín 10 2 1 7 7
17 Havířov 9 0 4 5 4
18 Polanka nad Odrou 9 0 3 6 3
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Unie Hlubina 10 25 18 +7 15
2 Zbrojovka Brno II 10 23 15 +8 22
3 Líšeň II 10 19 3 +16 24
4 Sigma Olomouc II 10 18 12 +6 16
5 Uničov 9 17 13 +4 17
6 Slovácko II 10 16 11 +5 15
7 Uherský Brod 10 16 16 0 14
8 Frýdek-Místek 9 15 7 +8 18
9 Karviná II 10 15 20 -5 11
10 Blansko 10 15 27 -12 7
11 Hranice 10 14 9 +5 16
12 Zlín II 10 12 16 -4 12
13 Vítkovice 10 11 7 +4 16
14 Vrchovina 10 11 16 -5 14
15 Hodonín 10 10 12 -2 11
16 Vsetín 10 10 24 -14 7
17 Polanka nad Odrou 9 5 14 -9 3
18 Havířov 9 4 16 -12 4