Predictions / Football / Czech-Republic. 3. liga - MSFL / Uničov vs Zbrojovka Brno II

Prediction Audit: Uničov vs Zbrojovka Brno II Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Uničov Uničov
Aug 16, 2026 - 08:15
1 1.39
2 1.21
xG Accuracy: 72%
Zbrojovka Brno II Zbrojovka Brno II

The model missed the final outcome (Zbrojovka Brno II win 1–2).

The model had projected Uničov at 39.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Uničov Zbrojovka Brno II ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-2 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Uničov higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Uničov -11.9 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Uničov 39.5% 51.4% -11.9 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.5% 24.5% +5.0 pp Model Higher
Zbrojovka Brno II 31.0% 24.1% +6.9 pp Model Higher

The closing market estimates Uničov's win probability at 51.4%, compared with the model's estimate of 39.5%, a difference of 11.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Zbrojovka Brno II win 1–2.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Uničov than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Exact score 1–2 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Uničov; match finished Zbrojovka Brno II

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Uničov by 11.9 percentage points (51.5% vs model 39.5%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 16, 2026 · 08:11 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Uničov 39.5% · Draw 29.5% · Zbrojovka Brno II 31.0%
    • xG · Uničov 1.39 — Zbrojovka Brno II 1.21
  2. Aug 16, 2026 · 07:44 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Uničov 1.76 · Draw 3.70 · Zbrojovka Brno II 3.75
    • Implied 1X2 · Uničov 51.4% · Draw 24.5% · Zbrojovka Brno II 24.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 16, 2026 · 08:14 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Uničov 1.76 · Draw 3.70 · Zbrojovka Brno II 3.75
    • Implied 1X2 · Uničov 51.4% · Draw 24.5% · Zbrojovka Brno II 24.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 16, 2026 · 08:15 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Zbrojovka Brno II win · 1–2
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (12 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 40/100
Betting Confidence 45/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 11, 2026 · 00:53 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3599422

Closing Odds 1.76
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Zbrojovka Brno II win · Uničov 1–2 Zbrojovka Brno II
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: 3. liga - MSFL
  • Fixture: Uničov vs Zbrojovka Brno II
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-16 08:15:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 39.5% · Draw 29.5% · Away 31.0%
  • xG (showing): Uničov 1.39 — Zbrojovka Brno II 1.21 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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3. liga - MSFL 3. liga - MSFL — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Líšeň II 10 7 3 0 24
2 Zbrojovka Brno II 10 7 1 2 22
3 Frýdek-Místek 9 5 3 1 18
4 Uničov 9 5 2 2 17
5 Sigma Olomouc II 10 5 1 4 16
6 Hranice 10 5 1 4 16
7 Vítkovice 10 4 4 2 16
8 Unie Hlubina 10 4 3 3 15
9 Slovácko II 10 4 3 3 15
10 Uherský Brod 10 4 2 4 14
11 Vrchovina 10 4 2 4 14
12 Zlín II 10 3 3 4 12
13 Hodonín 10 3 2 5 11
14 Karviná II 10 3 2 5 11
15 Blansko 10 1 4 5 7
16 Vsetín 10 2 1 7 7
17 Havířov 9 0 4 5 4
18 Polanka nad Odrou 9 0 3 6 3
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Unie Hlubina 10 25 18 +7 15
2 Zbrojovka Brno II 10 23 15 +8 22
3 Líšeň II 10 19 3 +16 24
4 Sigma Olomouc II 10 18 12 +6 16
5 Uničov 9 17 13 +4 17
6 Slovácko II 10 16 11 +5 15
7 Uherský Brod 10 16 16 0 14
8 Frýdek-Místek 9 15 7 +8 18
9 Karviná II 10 15 20 -5 11
10 Blansko 10 15 27 -12 7
11 Hranice 10 14 9 +5 16
12 Zlín II 10 12 16 -4 12
13 Vítkovice 10 11 7 +4 16
14 Vrchovina 10 11 16 -5 14
15 Hodonín 10 10 12 -2 11
16 Vsetín 10 10 24 -14 7
17 Polanka nad Odrou 9 5 14 -9 3
18 Havířov 9 4 16 -12 4
3. liga - MSFL Czech-Republic. 3. liga - MSFL Predictions