Predictions / Football / Czech-Republic. 3. liga - MSFL / Blansko vs Hodonín

Prediction Audit: Blansko vs Hodonín Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Blansko Blansko
Aug 08, 2026 - 08:30
3 1.16
3 1.44
xG Accuracy: 39%
Hodonín Hodonín

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 3–3).

The model had projected Hodonín at 41.9%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Hodonín Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-2 3-3 ✖ Incorrect

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 6 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (6 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Hodonín; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The full-time result was Draw 3–3, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 08, 2026 · 08:29 UTC Forecast generated
    • xG · Blansko 1.16 — Hodonín 1.44
  2. Aug 08, 2026 · 08:30 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result Draw · 3–3
  4. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 02, 2026 · 01:03 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2809152

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Blansko 3–3 Hodonín
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: 3. liga - MSFL
  • Fixture: Blansko vs Hodonín
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-08 08:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 28.8% · Draw 29.3% · Away 41.9%
  • xG (showing): Blansko 1.16 — Hodonín 1.44 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.0% · No 46.0%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.0% · No 46.0%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 14, 2026 (UTC)

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3. liga - MSFL 3. liga - MSFL — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Uničov 12 8 2 2 26
2 Líšeň II 11 7 4 0 25
3 Zbrojovka Brno II 11 7 2 2 23
4 Frýdek-Místek 12 6 3 3 21
5 Sigma Olomouc II 11 6 1 4 19
6 Hranice 11 5 2 4 17
7 Hodonín 12 5 2 5 17
8 Vítkovice 12 4 4 4 16
9 Unie Hlubina 11 4 3 4 15
10 Slovácko II 11 4 3 4 15
11 Uherský Brod 11 4 3 4 15
12 Zlín II 11 4 3 4 15
13 Karviná II 12 4 2 6 14
14 Vrchovina 12 4 2 6 14
15 Blansko 12 2 5 5 11
16 Vsetín 12 3 1 8 10
17 Polanka nad Odrou 11 1 3 7 6
18 Havířov 11 0 5 6 5
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Uničov 12 26 14 +12 26
2 Unie Hlubina 11 26 22 +4 15
3 Zbrojovka Brno II 11 24 16 +8 23
4 Líšeň II 11 20 4 +16 25
5 Sigma Olomouc II 11 20 13 +7 19
6 Frýdek-Místek 12 19 13 +6 21
7 Karviná II 12 19 21 -2 14
8 Uherský Brod 11 18 18 0 15
9 Blansko 12 18 28 -10 11
10 Hodonín 12 17 13 +4 17
11 Slovácko II 11 16 12 +4 15
12 Hranice 11 15 10 +5 17
13 Zlín II 11 13 16 -3 15
14 Vrchovina 12 13 24 -11 14
15 Vítkovice 12 12 13 -1 16
16 Vsetín 12 11 26 -15 10
17 Polanka nad Odrou 11 7 17 -10 6
18 Havířov 11 6 20 -14 5
3. liga - MSFL Czech-Republic. 3. liga - MSFL Predictions