Prediction Audit: Líšeň II vs Vrchovina Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Líšeň II

Aug 07, 2026 - 15:30

3 1.28

0 1.32

xG Accuracy: 43%

Vrchovina

The model missed the final outcome (Líšeň II win 3–0).

The model had projected Vrchovina at 36.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Vrchovina Líšeň II ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 3-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
Líšeň II	34.2%	53.9%	-19.6 pp	Market Higher
Draw	29.6%	22.5%	+7.1 pp	Model Higher
Vrchovina	36.1%	23.6%	+12.5 pp	Model Edge

The closing market estimates Líšeň II's win probability at 53.9%, compared with the model's estimate of 34.2%, a difference of 19.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Líšeň II win 3–0.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Líšeň II than the current fair estimate.

Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised

What failed

Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Vrchovina by 19.6 percentage points (55.7% vs model 36.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Aug 07, 2026 · 15:29 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Líšeň II 34.2% · Draw 29.7% · Vrchovina 36.1%
- xG · Líšeň II 1.28 — Vrchovina 1.32
Aug 07, 2026 · 15:01 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Líšeň II 1.68 · Draw 4.02 · Vrchovina 3.83
- Implied 1X2 · Líšeň II 53.9% · Draw 22.5% · Vrchovina 23.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Aug 07, 2026 · 15:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Líšeň II 1.68 · Draw 4.02 · Vrchovina 3.83
- Implied 1X2 · Líšeň II 53.9% · Draw 22.5% · Vrchovina 23.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Aug 07, 2026 · 15:30 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Líšeň II win · 3–0
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor

Historical Decision Monitor

Outcome Missed

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 53/100 · Moderate

Validation: Warning
Large market gap (20 pp)

Evidence ★★★★★

No strong statistical edge
Pricing remains divergent
Validation warning

Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100

Monitoring Confidence 18/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 01, 2026 · 01:33 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2671919

Closing Odds 1.68

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Líšeň II win · Líšeň II 3–0 Vrchovina

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: 3. liga - MSFL
Fixture: Líšeň II vs Vrchovina
Kickoff: 2026-08-07 15:30:00
1X2 (model): Home 34.2% · Draw 29.7% · Away 36.1%
xG (showing): Líšeň II 1.28 — Vrchovina 1.32 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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3. liga - MSFL — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Líšeň II	10	7	3	0	24
2	Zbrojovka Brno II	10	7	1	2	22
3	Frýdek-Místek	9	5	3	1	18
4	Uničov	9	5	2	2	17
5	Sigma Olomouc II	10	5	1	4	16
6	Hranice	10	5	1	4	16
7	Vítkovice	10	4	4	2	16
8	Unie Hlubina	10	4	3	3	15
9	Slovácko II	10	4	3	3	15
10	Uherský Brod	10	4	2	4	14
11	Vrchovina	10	4	2	4	14
12	Zlín II	10	3	3	4	12
13	Hodonín	10	3	2	5	11
14	Karviná II	10	3	2	5	11
15	Blansko	10	1	4	5	7
16	Vsetín	10	2	1	7	7
17	Havířov	9	0	4	5	4
18	Polanka nad Odrou	9	0	3	6	3

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Unie Hlubina	10	25	18	+7	15
2	Zbrojovka Brno II	10	23	15	+8	22
3	Líšeň II	10	19	3	+16	24
4	Sigma Olomouc II	10	18	12	+6	16
5	Uničov	9	17	13	+4	17
6	Slovácko II	10	16	11	+5	15
7	Uherský Brod	10	16	16	0	14
8	Frýdek-Místek	9	15	7	+8	18
9	Karviná II	10	15	20	-5	11
10	Blansko	10	15	27	-12	7
11	Hranice	10	14	9	+5	16
12	Zlín II	10	12	16	-4	12
13	Vítkovice	10	11	7	+4	16
14	Vrchovina	10	11	16	-5	14
15	Hodonín	10	10	12	-2	11
16	Vsetín	10	10	24	-14	7
17	Polanka nad Odrou	9	5	14	-9	3
18	Havířov	9	4	16	-12	4