Predictions / Football / Czech-Republic. 3. liga - MSFL / Vsetín vs Sigma Olomouc II

Prediction Audit: Vsetín vs Sigma Olomouc II Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Vsetín Vsetín
Aug 02, 2026 - 15:00
0 1.17
5 1.43
xG Accuracy: 27%
Sigma Olomouc II Sigma Olomouc II

AI correctly predicted the Sigma Olomouc II win.

The match finished 0–5, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Sigma Olomouc II Sigma Olomouc II ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-2 0-5 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Sigma Olomouc II higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Sigma Olomouc II -14.2 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Vsetín 29.2% 21.8% +7.4 pp Model Higher
Draw 29.4% 22.6% +6.7 pp Model Higher
Sigma Olomouc II 41.4% 55.6% -14.2 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Sigma Olomouc II's win probability at 55.6%, compared with the model's estimate of 41.4%, a difference of 14.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Sigma Olomouc II win 0–5).

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Sigma Olomouc II than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 5 goals materialised

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Sigma Olomouc II higher (55.6% vs model 41.4%, 14.2 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Sigma Olomouc II win 0–5).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 02, 2026 · 15:02 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Vsetín 29.3% · Draw 29.4% · Sigma Olomouc II 41.4%
    • xG · Vsetín 1.17 — Sigma Olomouc II 1.43
  2. Aug 02, 2026 · 14:32 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Vsetín 4.18 · Draw 4.03 · Sigma Olomouc II 1.64
    • Implied 1X2 · Vsetín 21.8% · Draw 22.6% · Sigma Olomouc II 55.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 02, 2026 · 15:02 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Vsetín 4.18 · Draw 4.03 · Sigma Olomouc II 1.64
    • Implied 1X2 · Vsetín 21.8% · Draw 22.6% · Sigma Olomouc II 55.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 02, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Sigma Olomouc II win · 0–5
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 56/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (14 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 29/100
Betting Confidence 44/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 27, 2026 · 01:36 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1950950

Closing Odds 1.64
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Sigma Olomouc II win · Vsetín 0–5 Sigma Olomouc II
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: 3. liga - MSFL
  • Fixture: Vsetín vs Sigma Olomouc II
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-02 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 29.3% · Draw 29.4% · Away 41.4%
  • xG (showing): Vsetín 1.17 — Sigma Olomouc II 1.43 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.1% · No 45.9%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.1% · No 45.9%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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3. liga - MSFL 3. liga - MSFL — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Líšeň II 10 7 3 0 24
2 Zbrojovka Brno II 10 7 1 2 22
3 Frýdek-Místek 9 5 3 1 18
4 Uničov 9 5 2 2 17
5 Sigma Olomouc II 10 5 1 4 16
6 Hranice 10 5 1 4 16
7 Vítkovice 10 4 4 2 16
8 Unie Hlubina 10 4 3 3 15
9 Slovácko II 10 4 3 3 15
10 Uherský Brod 10 4 2 4 14
11 Vrchovina 10 4 2 4 14
12 Zlín II 10 3 3 4 12
13 Hodonín 10 3 2 5 11
14 Karviná II 10 3 2 5 11
15 Blansko 10 1 4 5 7
16 Vsetín 10 2 1 7 7
17 Havířov 9 0 4 5 4
18 Polanka nad Odrou 9 0 3 6 3
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Unie Hlubina 10 25 18 +7 15
2 Zbrojovka Brno II 10 23 15 +8 22
3 Líšeň II 10 19 3 +16 24
4 Sigma Olomouc II 10 18 12 +6 16
5 Uničov 9 17 13 +4 17
6 Slovácko II 10 16 11 +5 15
7 Uherský Brod 10 16 16 0 14
8 Frýdek-Místek 9 15 7 +8 18
9 Karviná II 10 15 20 -5 11
10 Blansko 10 15 27 -12 7
11 Hranice 10 14 9 +5 16
12 Zlín II 10 12 16 -4 12
13 Vítkovice 10 11 7 +4 16
14 Vrchovina 10 11 16 -5 14
15 Hodonín 10 10 12 -2 11
16 Vsetín 10 10 24 -14 7
17 Polanka nad Odrou 9 5 14 -9 3
18 Havířov 9 4 16 -12 4
3. liga - MSFL Czech-Republic. 3. liga - MSFL Predictions