Prediction Audit: Uničov vs Karviná II Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Uničov

Aug 02, 2026 - 08:15

3 1.45

2 1.15

xG Accuracy: 52%

Karviná II

AI correctly predicted the Uničov win.

The match finished 3–2, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Uničov Uničov ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 3-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
Uničov	42.4%	54.5%	-12.2 pp	Market Higher
Draw	29.3%	23.5%	+5.8 pp	Model Higher
Karviná II	28.4%	22.0%	+6.4 pp	Model Higher

The closing market estimates Uničov's win probability at 54.5%, compared with the model's estimate of 42.4%, a difference of 12.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Uničov win 3–2).

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Uničov than the current fair estimate.

Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 5 goals materialised
Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)
Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Uničov higher (54.5% vs model 42.4%, 12.2 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Uničov win 3–2).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Aug 02, 2026 · 08:14 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Uničov 42.4% · Draw 29.2% · Karviná II 28.4%
- xG · Uničov 1.45 — Karviná II 1.15
Aug 02, 2026 · 07:44 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Uničov 1.66 · Draw 3.85 · Karviná II 4.12
- Implied 1X2 · Uničov 54.5% · Draw 23.5% · Karviná II 22.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Aug 02, 2026 · 08:14 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Uničov 1.66 · Draw 3.85 · Karviná II 4.12
- Implied 1X2 · Uničov 54.5% · Draw 23.5% · Karviná II 22.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Aug 02, 2026 · 08:15 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Uničov win · 3–2
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor

Historical Decision Monitor

Outcome Validated

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate

Validation: Warning
Large market gap (12 pp)

Evidence ★★★★★

No strong statistical edge
Market has already priced much of the edge
Validation warning

Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 39/100

Betting Confidence 45/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 27, 2026 · 00:50 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1941380

Closing Odds 1.66

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Uničov win · Uničov 3–2 Karviná II

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: 3. liga - MSFL
Fixture: Uničov vs Karviná II
Kickoff: 2026-08-02 08:15:00
1X2 (model): Home 42.4% · Draw 29.2% · Away 28.4%
xG (showing): Uničov 1.45 — Karviná II 1.15 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 53.9% · No 46.1%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 53.9% · No 46.1%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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3. liga - MSFL — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Líšeň II	10	7	3	0	24
2	Zbrojovka Brno II	10	7	1	2	22
3	Frýdek-Místek	9	5	3	1	18
4	Uničov	9	5	2	2	17
5	Sigma Olomouc II	10	5	1	4	16
6	Hranice	10	5	1	4	16
7	Vítkovice	10	4	4	2	16
8	Unie Hlubina	10	4	3	3	15
9	Slovácko II	10	4	3	3	15
10	Uherský Brod	10	4	2	4	14
11	Vrchovina	10	4	2	4	14
12	Zlín II	10	3	3	4	12
13	Hodonín	10	3	2	5	11
14	Karviná II	10	3	2	5	11
15	Blansko	10	1	4	5	7
16	Vsetín	10	2	1	7	7
17	Havířov	9	0	4	5	4
18	Polanka nad Odrou	9	0	3	6	3

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Unie Hlubina	10	25	18	+7	15
2	Zbrojovka Brno II	10	23	15	+8	22
3	Líšeň II	10	19	3	+16	24
4	Sigma Olomouc II	10	18	12	+6	16
5	Uničov	9	17	13	+4	17
6	Slovácko II	10	16	11	+5	15
7	Uherský Brod	10	16	16	0	14
8	Frýdek-Místek	9	15	7	+8	18
9	Karviná II	10	15	20	-5	11
10	Blansko	10	15	27	-12	7
11	Hranice	10	14	9	+5	16
12	Zlín II	10	12	16	-4	12
13	Vítkovice	10	11	7	+4	16
14	Vrchovina	10	11	16	-5	14
15	Hodonín	10	10	12	-2	11
16	Vsetín	10	10	24	-14	7
17	Polanka nad Odrou	9	5	14	-9	3
18	Havířov	9	4	16	-12	4