AI correctly predicted the Frem win.
The match finished 5–2, validating the model's directional assessment.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (7 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Frem Frem ✔ Correct
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 5-2 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frem | 37.5% | 57.8% | -20.3 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 23.1% | +6.5 pp | Model Higher |
| Ringsted | 32.9% | 19.1% | +13.7 pp | Model Edge |
The closing market estimates Frem's win probability at 57.8%, compared with the model's estimate of 37.5%, a difference of 20.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Frem win 5–2).
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 7 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (7 goals)
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Frem higher (57.8% vs model 37.5%, 20.3 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Frem win 5–2).
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 04, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Frem 37.6% · Draw 29.6% · Ringsted 32.9%
- xG · Frem 1.35 — Ringsted 1.25
-
Sep 04, 2026 · 16:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Frem 1.56 · Draw 3.91 · Ringsted 4.72
- Implied 1X2 · Frem 57.8% · Draw 23.1% · Ringsted 19.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 04, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Frem 1.56 · Draw 3.91 · Ringsted 4.72
- Implied 1X2 · Frem 57.8% · Draw 23.1% · Ringsted 19.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 04, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Frem win · 5–2
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (20 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Pricing remains divergent
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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3. Division — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Holbæk B&I | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 19 |
| 2 | Brønshøj | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 18 |
| 3 | FC Helsingor | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 17 |
| 4 | Vanløse | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 16 |
| 5 | ASA Aarhus | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 16 |
| 6 | Næsby | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 7 | Holstebro | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 13 |
| 8 | Sundby | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 10 |
| 9 | Hørsholm-Usserød | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 9 |
| 10 | Frem | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 8 |
| 11 | Ishøj | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 7 |
| 12 | Ringsted | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 4 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Holbæk B&I | 9 | 24 | 17 | +7 | 19 |
| 2 | Brønshøj | 9 | 17 | 9 | +8 | 18 |
| 3 | FC Helsingor | 9 | 17 | 11 | +6 | 17 |
| 4 | Hørsholm-Usserød | 9 | 17 | 18 | -1 | 9 |
| 5 | Næsby | 9 | 16 | 14 | +2 | 14 |
| 6 | Holstebro | 9 | 16 | 18 | -2 | 13 |
| 7 | Frem | 9 | 16 | 18 | -2 | 8 |
| 8 | Vanløse | 9 | 15 | 9 | +6 | 16 |
| 9 | Sundby | 9 | 14 | 15 | -1 | 10 |
| 10 | ASA Aarhus | 9 | 13 | 12 | +1 | 16 |
| 11 | Ringsted | 9 | 11 | 25 | -14 | 4 |
| 12 | Ishøj | 9 | 7 | 17 | -10 | 7 |
