Predictions / Football / Russia. First League / Tekstilshchik vs Torpedo Moskva

Prediction Audit: Tekstilshchik vs Torpedo Moskva Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Tekstilshchik Tekstilshchik
Sep 04, 2026 - 16:30
1 1.30
4 1.30
xG Accuracy: 44%
Torpedo Moskva Torpedo Moskva

The model missed the final outcome (Torpedo Moskva win 1–4).

The model had projected Tekstilshchik at 35.2%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Tekstilshchik Torpedo Moskva ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-4 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Torpedo Moskva higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Torpedo Moskva -25.5 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Tekstilshchik 35.2% 15.0% +20.2 pp Model Edge
Draw 29.6% 24.4% +5.3 pp Model Higher
Torpedo Moskva 35.2% 60.6% -25.5 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Torpedo Moskva's win probability at 60.6%, compared with the model's estimate of 35.2%, a difference of 25.5 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Torpedo Moskva win 1–4.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 5 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Tekstilshchik; match finished Torpedo Moskva

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Tekstilshchik by 25.5 percentage points (60.7% vs model 35.2%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 04, 2026 · 16:29 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Tekstilshchik 35.2% · Draw 29.6% · Torpedo Moskva 35.2%
    • xG · Tekstilshchik 1.30 — Torpedo Moskva 1.30
  2. Sep 04, 2026 · 16:01 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Tekstilshchik 6.35 · Draw 3.91 · Torpedo Moskva 1.57
    • Implied 1X2 · Tekstilshchik 15.0% · Draw 24.4% · Torpedo Moskva 60.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 04, 2026 · 16:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Tekstilshchik 6.35 · Draw 3.91 · Torpedo Moskva 1.57
    • Implied 1X2 · Tekstilshchik 15.0% · Draw 24.4% · Torpedo Moskva 60.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 04, 2026 · 16:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Torpedo Moskva win · 1–4
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 50/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (25 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market strongly disagrees on price
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Monitoring Confidence 14/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 29, 2026 · 01:58 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-5914585

Closing Odds 1.57
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Torpedo Moskva win · Tekstilshchik 1–4 Torpedo Moskva
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: First League
  • Fixture: Tekstilshchik vs Torpedo Moskva
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-04 16:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 35.2% · Draw 29.6% · Away 35.2%
  • xG (showing): Tekstilshchik 1.3 — Torpedo Moskva 1.3 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Tekstilshchik
  • Model: 35.2% · Implied: 15.0% · Probability edge: +20.2 pts · Est. EV: +13.1%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 03, 2026 (UTC)

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First League First League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Nizhny Novgorod 12 10 1 1 31
2 Ural 12 7 4 1 25
3 Spartak Kostroma 12 7 3 2 24
4 FC Sochi 12 7 2 3 23
5 Veles 12 7 2 3 23
6 Torpedo Moskva 12 6 3 3 21
7 FC UFA 12 4 6 2 18
8 Rotor Volgograd 12 5 2 5 17
9 Shinnik Yaroslavl 12 3 7 2 16
10 Enisey 12 3 5 4 14
11 Arsenal Tula 12 3 4 5 13
12 Leningradets 12 3 4 5 13
13 Chelyabinsk 12 3 3 6 12
14 FK Neftekhimik 12 4 0 8 12
15 Volga Ulyanovsk 12 3 2 7 11
16 KAMAZ 12 2 3 7 9
17 Tekstilshchik 12 1 4 7 7
18 Ska-khabarovsk 12 1 3 8 6
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Nizhny Novgorod 12 36 14 +22 31
2 Torpedo Moskva 12 21 9 +12 21
3 FC Sochi 12 21 14 +7 23
4 Ural 12 20 6 +14 25
5 Rotor Volgograd 12 20 14 +6 17
6 Spartak Kostroma 12 16 10 +6 24
7 FC UFA 12 16 13 +3 18
8 Veles 12 16 14 +2 23
9 Shinnik Yaroslavl 12 15 13 +2 16
10 Enisey 12 15 20 -5 14
11 Volga Ulyanovsk 12 14 18 -4 11
12 Chelyabinsk 12 13 19 -6 12
13 Arsenal Tula 12 12 22 -10 13
14 KAMAZ 12 11 19 -8 9
15 Ska-khabarovsk 12 11 23 -12 6
16 Leningradets 12 10 20 -10 13
17 Tekstilshchik 12 8 19 -11 7
18 FK Neftekhimik 12 7 15 -8 12
First League Russia. First League Predictions