Predictions / Football / Russia. First League / FK Neftekhimik vs FC UFA

Prediction Audit: FK Neftekhimik vs FC UFA Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

FK Neftekhimik FK Neftekhimik
Aug 28, 2026 - 16:30
0 1.34
1 1.26
xG Accuracy: 64%
FC UFA FC UFA

The model missed the final outcome (FC UFA win 0–1).

The model had projected FK Neftekhimik at 37.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 FK Neftekhimik FC UFA ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Broadly Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned.

Largest probability gap: FC UFA +1.1 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
FK Neftekhimik 37.1% 37.2% -0.1 pp Aligned
Draw 29.6% 30.6% -1.0 pp Aligned
FC UFA 33.3% 32.2% +1.1 pp Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was FC UFA win 0–1.

Market Assessment

The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.

  • Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 0–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • 1X2: model leaned FK Neftekhimik; match finished FC UFA

Market lesson

The full-time result was FC UFA win 0–1, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 28, 2026 · 16:29 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · FK Neftekhimik 37.0% · Draw 29.6% · FC UFA 33.4%
    • xG · FK Neftekhimik 1.34 — FC UFA 1.26
  2. Aug 28, 2026 · 16:02 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · FK Neftekhimik 2.58 · Draw 3.13 · FC UFA 2.98
    • Implied 1X2 · FK Neftekhimik 37.2% · Draw 30.6% · FC UFA 32.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 28, 2026 · 16:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · FK Neftekhimik 2.58 · Draw 3.13 · FC UFA 2.98
    • Implied 1X2 · FK Neftekhimik 37.2% · Draw 30.6% · FC UFA 32.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 28, 2026 · 16:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result FC UFA win · 0–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 78/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 94/100
Betting Confidence 81/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 22, 2026 · 02:54 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4932045

Closing Odds 2.98
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result FC UFA win · FK Neftekhimik 0–1 FC UFA
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: First League
  • Fixture: FK Neftekhimik vs FC UFA
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-28 16:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 37.0% · Draw 29.6% · Away 33.4%
  • xG (showing): FK Neftekhimik 1.34 — FC UFA 1.26 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 16, 2026 (UTC)

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First League First League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Nizhny Novgorod 10 8 1 1 25
2 Veles 10 7 1 2 22
3 Torpedo Moskva 9 6 1 2 19
4 FC Sochi 10 6 1 3 19
5 Ural 9 5 3 1 18
6 Spartak Kostroma 9 5 3 1 18
7 FC UFA 9 4 4 1 16
8 Shinnik Yaroslavl 9 3 5 1 14
9 FK Neftekhimik 10 4 0 6 12
10 Arsenal Tula 10 3 3 4 12
11 Rotor Volgograd 10 3 2 5 11
12 Volga Ulyanovsk 9 3 1 5 10
13 Enisey 9 2 4 3 10
14 Leningradets 9 2 3 4 9
15 Chelyabinsk 9 2 1 6 7
16 Tekstilshchik 10 1 3 6 6
17 KAMAZ 10 1 2 7 5
18 Ska-khabarovsk 9 1 0 8 3
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Nizhny Novgorod 10 28 13 +15 25
2 Torpedo Moskva 9 19 6 +13 19
3 FC Sochi 10 18 12 +6 19
4 Ural 9 16 4 +12 18
5 Veles 10 14 11 +3 22
6 Shinnik Yaroslavl 9 14 11 +3 14
7 Rotor Volgograd 10 14 14 0 11
8 Spartak Kostroma 9 13 8 +5 18
9 FC UFA 9 13 9 +4 16
10 Volga Ulyanovsk 9 12 14 -2 10
11 Enisey 9 11 14 -3 10
12 Chelyabinsk 9 9 16 -7 7
13 Arsenal Tula 10 9 17 -8 12
14 KAMAZ 10 9 18 -9 5
15 Ska-khabarovsk 9 8 20 -12 3
16 Leningradets 9 7 12 -5 9
17 FK Neftekhimik 10 7 13 -6 12
18 Tekstilshchik 10 6 15 -9 6
First League Russia. First League Predictions