Predictions / Football / Russia. First League / Tekstilshchik vs Nizhny Novgorod

Prediction Audit: Tekstilshchik vs Nizhny Novgorod Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Tekstilshchik Tekstilshchik
Aug 15, 2026 - 14:00
1 1.32
3 1.28
xG Accuracy: 57%
Nizhny Novgorod Nizhny Novgorod

The model missed the final outcome (Nizhny Novgorod win 1–3).

The model had projected Tekstilshchik at 36.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Tekstilshchik Nizhny Novgorod ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-3 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Nizhny Novgorod higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Nizhny Novgorod -28.3 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Tekstilshchik 36.1% 15.0% +21.1 pp Model Edge
Draw 29.6% 22.5% +7.2 pp Model Higher
Nizhny Novgorod 34.2% 62.5% -28.3 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Nizhny Novgorod's win probability at 62.5%, compared with the model's estimate of 34.2%, a difference of 28.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Nizhny Novgorod win 1–3.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Tekstilshchik; match finished Nizhny Novgorod

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Tekstilshchik by 28.3 percentage points (64.4% vs model 36.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 15, 2026 · 14:12 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Tekstilshchik 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Nizhny Novgorod 34.2%
    • xG · Tekstilshchik 1.32 — Nizhny Novgorod 1.28
  2. Aug 15, 2026 · 13:45 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Tekstilshchik 6.35 · Draw 4.23 · Nizhny Novgorod 1.52
    • Implied 1X2 · Tekstilshchik 15.0% · Draw 22.5% · Nizhny Novgorod 62.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 15, 2026 · 14:12 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Tekstilshchik 6.35 · Draw 4.23 · Nizhny Novgorod 1.52
    • Implied 1X2 · Tekstilshchik 15.0% · Draw 22.5% · Nizhny Novgorod 62.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 15, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Nizhny Novgorod win · 1–3
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 49/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (28 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market strongly disagrees on price
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Monitoring Confidence 13/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 09, 2026 · 02:11 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3353161

Closing Odds 1.52
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Nizhny Novgorod win · Tekstilshchik 1–3 Nizhny Novgorod
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: First League
  • Fixture: Tekstilshchik vs Nizhny Novgorod
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-15 14:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
  • xG (showing): Tekstilshchik 1.32 — Nizhny Novgorod 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Tekstilshchik
  • Model: 36.1% · Implied: 15.0% · Probability edge: +21.1 pts · Est. EV: +13.4%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Predictions
First League First League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Nizhny Novgorod 12 10 1 1 31
2 Spartak Kostroma 11 7 3 1 24
3 FC Sochi 12 7 2 3 23
4 Veles 12 7 2 3 23
5 Ural 11 6 4 1 22
6 Torpedo Moskva 11 6 2 3 20
7 Rotor Volgograd 12 5 2 5 17
8 FC UFA 11 4 5 2 17
9 Shinnik Yaroslavl 11 3 6 2 15
10 Enisey 11 3 4 4 13
11 Arsenal Tula 12 3 4 5 13
12 FK Neftekhimik 12 4 0 8 12
13 Volga Ulyanovsk 11 3 2 6 11
14 Chelyabinsk 11 3 2 6 11
15 Leningradets 11 2 4 5 10
16 KAMAZ 12 2 3 7 9
17 Tekstilshchik 12 1 4 7 7
18 Ska-khabarovsk 11 1 2 8 5
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Nizhny Novgorod 12 36 14 +22 31
2 Torpedo Moskva 11 21 9 +12 20
3 FC Sochi 12 21 14 +7 23
4 Rotor Volgograd 12 20 14 +6 17
5 Ural 11 18 5 +13 22
6 FC UFA 11 16 13 +3 17
7 Veles 12 16 14 +2 23
8 Spartak Kostroma 11 15 8 +7 24
9 Shinnik Yaroslavl 11 15 13 +2 15
10 Volga Ulyanovsk 11 14 17 -3 11
11 Enisey 11 14 19 -5 13
12 Chelyabinsk 11 12 18 -6 11
13 Arsenal Tula 12 12 22 -10 13
14 KAMAZ 12 11 19 -8 9
15 Ska-khabarovsk 11 11 23 -12 5
16 Leningradets 11 9 20 -11 10
17 Tekstilshchik 12 8 19 -11 7
18 FK Neftekhimik 12 7 15 -8 12