Predictions / Football / Russia. First League / Ska-khabarovsk vs Veles

Prediction Audit: Ska-khabarovsk vs Veles Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Ska-khabarovsk Ska-khabarovsk
Aug 15, 2026 - 05:00
2 1.29
0 1.31
xG Accuracy: 57%
Veles Veles

The model missed the final outcome (Ska-khabarovsk win 2–0).

The model had projected Veles at 35.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Veles Ska-khabarovsk ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Broadly Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned.

Largest probability gap: Draw -1.0 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Ska-khabarovsk 34.7% 33.9% +0.8 pp Aligned
Draw 29.6% 30.6% -1.0 pp Aligned
Veles 35.6% 35.5% +0.1 pp Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Ska-khabarovsk win 2–0.

Market Assessment

The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.

  • Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • 1X2: model leaned Veles; match finished Ska-khabarovsk

Market lesson

The full-time result was Ska-khabarovsk win 2–0, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 15, 2026 · 04:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Ska-khabarovsk 34.7% · Draw 29.7% · Veles 35.6%
    • xG · Ska-khabarovsk 1.29 — Veles 1.31
  2. Aug 15, 2026 · 04:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Ska-khabarovsk 2.83 · Draw 3.13 · Veles 2.70
    • Implied 1X2 · Ska-khabarovsk 33.9% · Draw 30.6% · Veles 35.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 15, 2026 · 04:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Ska-khabarovsk 2.83 · Draw 3.13 · Veles 2.70
    • Implied 1X2 · Ska-khabarovsk 33.9% · Draw 30.6% · Veles 35.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 15, 2026 · 05:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Ska-khabarovsk win · 2–0
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 79/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 95/100
Betting Confidence 82/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 09, 2026 · 00:55 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3335077

Closing Odds 3.13
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Ska-khabarovsk win · Ska-khabarovsk 2–0 Veles
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: First League
  • Fixture: Ska-khabarovsk vs Veles
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-15 05:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 34.7% · Draw 29.7% · Away 35.6%
  • xG (showing): Ska-khabarovsk 1.29 — Veles 1.31 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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First League First League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Nizhny Novgorod 12 10 1 1 31
2 Spartak Kostroma 11 7 3 1 24
3 FC Sochi 12 7 2 3 23
4 Veles 12 7 2 3 23
5 Ural 11 6 4 1 22
6 Torpedo Moskva 11 6 2 3 20
7 Rotor Volgograd 12 5 2 5 17
8 FC UFA 11 4 5 2 17
9 Shinnik Yaroslavl 11 3 6 2 15
10 Enisey 11 3 4 4 13
11 Arsenal Tula 12 3 4 5 13
12 FK Neftekhimik 12 4 0 8 12
13 Volga Ulyanovsk 11 3 2 6 11
14 Chelyabinsk 11 3 2 6 11
15 Leningradets 11 2 4 5 10
16 KAMAZ 12 2 3 7 9
17 Tekstilshchik 12 1 4 7 7
18 Ska-khabarovsk 11 1 2 8 5
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Nizhny Novgorod 12 36 14 +22 31
2 Torpedo Moskva 11 21 9 +12 20
3 FC Sochi 12 21 14 +7 23
4 Rotor Volgograd 12 20 14 +6 17
5 Ural 11 18 5 +13 22
6 FC UFA 11 16 13 +3 17
7 Veles 12 16 14 +2 23
8 Spartak Kostroma 11 15 8 +7 24
9 Shinnik Yaroslavl 11 15 13 +2 15
10 Volga Ulyanovsk 11 14 17 -3 11
11 Enisey 11 14 19 -5 13
12 Chelyabinsk 11 12 18 -6 11
13 Arsenal Tula 12 12 22 -10 13
14 KAMAZ 12 11 19 -8 9
15 Ska-khabarovsk 11 11 23 -12 5
16 Leningradets 11 9 20 -11 10
17 Tekstilshchik 12 8 19 -11 7
18 FK Neftekhimik 12 7 15 -8 12