Predictions / Football / Russia. First League / Ska-khabarovsk vs Spartak Kostroma

Prediction Audit: Ska-khabarovsk vs Spartak Kostroma Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Ska-khabarovsk Ska-khabarovsk
Aug 09, 2026 - 05:00
1 1.27
3 1.33
xG Accuracy: 59%
Spartak Kostroma Spartak Kostroma

AI correctly predicted the Spartak Kostroma win.

The match finished 1–3, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Spartak Kostroma Spartak Kostroma ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-3 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Spartak Kostroma higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Spartak Kostroma -10.9 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Ska-khabarovsk 33.8% 22.9% +10.9 pp Model Edge
Draw 29.6% 29.6% +0.1 pp Aligned
Spartak Kostroma 36.6% 47.5% -10.9 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Spartak Kostroma's win probability at 47.5%, compared with the model's estimate of 36.6%, a difference of 10.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Spartak Kostroma win 1–3).

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Spartak Kostroma than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Spartak Kostroma higher (47.5% vs model 36.6%, 10.9 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Spartak Kostroma win 1–3).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 09, 2026 · 04:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Ska-khabarovsk 33.8% · Draw 29.6% · Spartak Kostroma 36.6%
    • xG · Ska-khabarovsk 1.27 — Spartak Kostroma 1.33
  2. Aug 09, 2026 · 04:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Ska-khabarovsk 4.17 · Draw 3.23 · Spartak Kostroma 2.01
    • Implied 1X2 · Ska-khabarovsk 22.9% · Draw 29.6% · Spartak Kostroma 47.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 09, 2026 · 04:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Ska-khabarovsk 4.17 · Draw 3.23 · Spartak Kostroma 2.01
    • Implied 1X2 · Ska-khabarovsk 22.9% · Draw 29.6% · Spartak Kostroma 47.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 09, 2026 · 05:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Spartak Kostroma win · 1–3
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 58/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (11 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 45/100
Betting Confidence 46/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 04, 2026 · 00:47 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2959538

Closing Odds 2.01
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Spartak Kostroma win · Ska-khabarovsk 1–3 Spartak Kostroma
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: First League
  • Fixture: Ska-khabarovsk vs Spartak Kostroma
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-09 05:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 33.8% · Draw 29.6% · Away 36.6%
  • xG (showing): Ska-khabarovsk 1.27 — Spartak Kostroma 1.33 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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First League First League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Nizhny Novgorod 12 10 1 1 31
2 Spartak Kostroma 11 7 3 1 24
3 FC Sochi 12 7 2 3 23
4 Veles 12 7 2 3 23
5 Ural 11 6 4 1 22
6 Torpedo Moskva 11 6 2 3 20
7 Rotor Volgograd 12 5 2 5 17
8 FC UFA 11 4 5 2 17
9 Shinnik Yaroslavl 11 3 6 2 15
10 Enisey 11 3 4 4 13
11 Arsenal Tula 12 3 4 5 13
12 FK Neftekhimik 12 4 0 8 12
13 Volga Ulyanovsk 11 3 2 6 11
14 Chelyabinsk 11 3 2 6 11
15 Leningradets 11 2 4 5 10
16 KAMAZ 12 2 3 7 9
17 Tekstilshchik 12 1 4 7 7
18 Ska-khabarovsk 11 1 2 8 5
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Nizhny Novgorod 12 36 14 +22 31
2 Torpedo Moskva 11 21 9 +12 20
3 FC Sochi 12 21 14 +7 23
4 Rotor Volgograd 12 20 14 +6 17
5 Ural 11 18 5 +13 22
6 FC UFA 11 16 13 +3 17
7 Veles 12 16 14 +2 23
8 Spartak Kostroma 11 15 8 +7 24
9 Shinnik Yaroslavl 11 15 13 +2 15
10 Volga Ulyanovsk 11 14 17 -3 11
11 Enisey 11 14 19 -5 13
12 Chelyabinsk 11 12 18 -6 11
13 Arsenal Tula 12 12 22 -10 13
14 KAMAZ 12 11 19 -8 9
15 Ska-khabarovsk 11 11 23 -12 5
16 Leningradets 11 9 20 -11 10
17 Tekstilshchik 12 8 19 -11 7
18 FK Neftekhimik 12 7 15 -8 12