Predictions / Football / Russia. First League / FC Sochi vs Spartak Kostroma

Prediction Audit: FC Sochi vs Spartak Kostroma Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

FC Sochi FC Sochi
Jul 19, 2026 - 15:00
0 1.37
2 1.23
xG Accuracy: 56%
Spartak Kostroma Spartak Kostroma

The model missed the final outcome (Spartak Kostroma win 0–2).

The model had projected FC Sochi at 40.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 FC Sochi Spartak Kostroma ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices FC Sochi higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: FC Sochi -7.0 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
FC Sochi 40.1% 47.1% -7.0 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.2% 28.1% +1.1 pp Aligned
Spartak Kostroma 30.7% 24.8% +5.9 pp Model Higher

The closing market estimates FC Sochi's win probability at 47.1%, compared with the model's estimate of 40.1%, a difference of 7.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Spartak Kostroma win 0–2.

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on FC Sochi. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • 1X2: model leaned FC Sochi; match finished Spartak Kostroma

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on FC Sochi by 7.0 percentage points (47.1% vs model 40.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jul 19, 2026 · 19:48 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · FC Sochi 40.1% · Draw 29.2% · Spartak Kostroma 30.6%
    • xG · FC Sochi 1.37 — Spartak Kostroma 1.23
  2. Jul 19, 2026 · 14:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · FC Sochi 2.04 · Draw 3.48 · Spartak Kostroma 3.72
    • Implied 1X2 · FC Sochi 46.9% · Draw 27.5% · Spartak Kostroma 25.7%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jul 19, 2026 · 14:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · FC Sochi 2.03 · Draw 3.40 · Spartak Kostroma 3.86
    • Implied 1X2 · FC Sochi 47.1% · Draw 28.1% · Spartak Kostroma 24.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jul 19, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Spartak Kostroma win · 0–2
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 75/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 64/100
Betting Confidence 78/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 25, 2026 · 22:23 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1770663

Closing Odds 2.03
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Spartak Kostroma win · FC Sochi 0–2 Spartak Kostroma
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Russian Premier League
  • Fixture: FC Sochi vs Spartak Kostroma
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-19 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 10.0% · Draw 45.0% · Away 45.0%
  • xG (showing): FC Sochi 1.37 — Spartak Kostroma 1.23 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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First League First League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Nizhny Novgorod 12 10 1 1 31
2 Spartak Kostroma 11 7 3 1 24
3 FC Sochi 12 7 2 3 23
4 Veles 12 7 2 3 23
5 Ural 11 6 4 1 22
6 Torpedo Moskva 11 6 2 3 20
7 Rotor Volgograd 12 5 2 5 17
8 FC UFA 11 4 5 2 17
9 Shinnik Yaroslavl 11 3 6 2 15
10 Enisey 11 3 4 4 13
11 Arsenal Tula 12 3 4 5 13
12 FK Neftekhimik 12 4 0 8 12
13 Volga Ulyanovsk 11 3 2 6 11
14 Chelyabinsk 11 3 2 6 11
15 Leningradets 11 2 4 5 10
16 KAMAZ 12 2 3 7 9
17 Tekstilshchik 12 1 4 7 7
18 Ska-khabarovsk 11 1 2 8 5
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Nizhny Novgorod 12 36 14 +22 31
2 Torpedo Moskva 11 21 9 +12 20
3 FC Sochi 12 21 14 +7 23
4 Rotor Volgograd 12 20 14 +6 17
5 Ural 11 18 5 +13 22
6 FC UFA 11 16 13 +3 17
7 Veles 12 16 14 +2 23
8 Spartak Kostroma 11 15 8 +7 24
9 Shinnik Yaroslavl 11 15 13 +2 15
10 Volga Ulyanovsk 11 14 17 -3 11
11 Enisey 11 14 19 -5 13
12 Chelyabinsk 11 12 18 -6 11
13 Arsenal Tula 12 12 22 -10 13
14 KAMAZ 12 11 19 -8 9
15 Ska-khabarovsk 11 11 23 -12 5
16 Leningradets 11 9 20 -11 10
17 Tekstilshchik 12 8 19 -11 7
18 FK Neftekhimik 12 7 15 -8 12