Prediction Audit: Wanderers vs Progreso Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Wanderers

Jul 11, 2026 - 21:00

2 1.38

0 1.22

xG Accuracy: 60%

Progreso

AI correctly predicted the Wanderers win.

The match finished 2–0, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Wanderers Wanderers ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
Wanderers	41.2%	46.9%	-5.7 pp	Market Higher
Draw	29.3%	28.4%	+0.9 pp	Aligned
Progreso	29.5%	24.7%	+4.8 pp	Aligned

The closing market estimates Wanderers's win probability at 46.9%, compared with the model's estimate of 41.2%, a difference of 5.7 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Wanderers win 2–0).

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Wanderers. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Wanderers higher (46.9% vs model 41.2%, 5.7 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Wanderers win 2–0).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Jul 11, 2026 · 22:15 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Wanderers 41.2% · Draw 29.3% · Progreso 29.5%
- xG · Wanderers 1.38 — Progreso 1.22
Jul 11, 2026 · 20:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Wanderers 2.03 · Draw 3.35 · Progreso 3.85
- Implied 1X2 · Wanderers 46.9% · Draw 28.4% · Progreso 24.7%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Jul 11, 2026 · 20:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Wanderers 2.03 · Draw 3.35 · Progreso 3.85
- Implied 1X2 · Wanderers 46.9% · Draw 28.4% · Progreso 24.7%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Jul 11, 2026 · 21:00 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Wanderers win · 2–0
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe

Historical Decision No Primary Bet

Outcome Validated

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 76/100 · High

Validation: Pass

Evidence ★★★★★

No strong statistical edge
Direction agrees with model lean
Validation passed

Market Compatibility 71/100

Betting Confidence 79/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 04:46 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1552361

Closing Odds 2.03

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Wanderers win · Wanderers 2–0 Progreso

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: Primera División - Apertura
Fixture: Wanderers vs Progreso
Kickoff: 2026-07-11 21:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 41.2% · Draw 29.3% · Away 29.5%
xG (showing): Wanderers 1.38 — Progreso 1.22 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None (actionable) — best tracked EV is about +0.3%, still below the +2.0% minimum for a headline / default stake (no default bet).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 26, 2026 (UTC)

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Primera División - Apertura — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Penarol	28	17	5	6	55
2	Atletico Torque	28	16	5	7	53
3	Racing Montevideo	29	14	11	4	53
4	Deportivo Maldonado	29	15	7	7	52
5	Club Nacional	29	14	4	11	46
6	Wanderers	29	12	8	9	44
7	Liverpool Montevideo	29	11	10	8	43
8	Central Espanol	29	10	8	11	38
9	Juventud	29	9	8	12	35
10	Albion FC	29	9	7	13	34
11	Cerro Largo	29	8	9	12	33
12	Defensor Sporting	29	7	11	11	32
13	Cerro	29	9	5	15	32
14	Boston River	29	8	6	15	30
15	Danubio	29	4	14	11	26
16	Progreso	29	7	4	18	25

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Atletico Torque	28	51	32	+19	53
2	Penarol	28	46	23	+23	55
3	Deportivo Maldonado	29	44	27	+17	52
4	Club Nacional	29	43	38	+5	46
5	Liverpool Montevideo	29	37	27	+10	43
6	Albion FC	29	37	38	-1	34
7	Wanderers	29	36	35	+1	44
8	Racing Montevideo	29	35	22	+13	53
9	Juventud	29	35	39	-4	35
10	Central Espanol	29	31	37	-6	38
11	Cerro Largo	29	28	32	-4	33
12	Boston River	29	28	40	-12	30
13	Defensor Sporting	29	25	33	-8	32
14	Danubio	29	24	38	-14	26
15	Progreso	29	23	42	-19	25
16	Cerro	29	23	43	-20	32