The model missed the final outcome (Penafiel win 0–3).
The model had projected FC Porto B at 37.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 FC Porto B Penafiel ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-3 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto B | 37.1% | 30.0% | +7.1 pp | Model Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 27.8% | +1.8 pp | Aligned |
| Penafiel | 33.3% | 42.2% | -8.9 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates Penafiel's win probability at 42.2%, compared with the model's estimate of 33.3%, a difference of 8.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Penafiel win 0–3.
Market Assessment
The market and model broadly agree on Penafiel. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on FC Porto B by 8.9 percentage points (46.0% vs model 37.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Aug 30, 2026 · 17:02 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · FC Porto B 37.0% · Draw 29.6% · Penafiel 33.4%
- xG · FC Porto B 1.34 — Penafiel 1.26
-
Aug 30, 2026 · 16:33 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · FC Porto B 3.18 · Draw 3.43 · Penafiel 2.26
- Implied 1X2 · FC Porto B 30.0% · Draw 27.8% · Penafiel 42.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 30, 2026 · 17:01 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · FC Porto B 3.18 · Draw 3.43 · Penafiel 2.26
- Implied 1X2 · FC Porto B 30.0% · Draw 27.8% · Penafiel 42.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 30, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Penafiel win · 0–3
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Pass
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Segunda Liga — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lusitânia Lourosa | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 16 |
| 2 | Penafiel | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 13 |
| 3 | Sporting CP B | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 12 |
| 4 | Vizela | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 5 | Benfica B | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 6 | União de Leiria | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 7 | Leixoes | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 8 | Academica | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 9 |
| 9 | Tondela | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 9 |
| 10 | Farense | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 11 | Portimonense | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 |
| 12 | AVS | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 6 |
| 13 | Felgueiras 1932 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 6 |
| 14 | Torreense | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 6 |
| 15 | Amarante | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| 16 | Chaves | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| 17 | FC Porto B | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 |
| 18 | Feirense | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Penafiel | 6 | 13 | 5 | +8 | 13 |
| 2 | Lusitânia Lourosa | 6 | 11 | 4 | +7 | 16 |
| 3 | União de Leiria | 6 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 10 |
| 4 | Sporting CP B | 6 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 12 |
| 5 | Leixoes | 6 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 10 |
| 6 | Academica | 6 | 8 | 10 | -2 | 9 |
| 7 | Vizela | 6 | 7 | 4 | +3 | 11 |
| 8 | Benfica B | 6 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 10 |
| 9 | Farense | 5 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 8 |
| 10 | Tondela | 6 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 9 |
| 11 | Torreense | 6 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 6 |
| 12 | AVS | 6 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 6 |
| 13 | Felgueiras 1932 | 6 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 6 |
| 14 | Amarante | 6 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 5 |
| 15 | Chaves | 5 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 4 |
| 16 | Portimonense | 6 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 7 |
| 17 | FC Porto B | 6 | 4 | 13 | -9 | 4 |
| 18 | Feirense | 6 | 1 | 8 | -7 | 1 |
