Predictions / Football / Portugal. Segunda Liga / Farense vs Felgueiras 1932

Prediction Audit: Farense vs Felgueiras 1932 Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Farense Farense
Aug 24, 2026 - 17:00
1 1.27
1 1.33
xG Accuracy: 85%
Felgueiras 1932 Felgueiras 1932

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).

The model had projected Felgueiras 1932 at 36.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Felgueiras 1932 Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The model rates Felgueiras 1932 considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: Felgueiras 1932 +10.6 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Farense 33.8% 43.3% -9.6 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 30.6% -1.0 pp Aligned
Felgueiras 1932 36.6% 26.0% +10.6 pp Model Edge

The statistical model estimates Felgueiras 1932's win probability at 36.6%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 26.0%, a difference of 10.6 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 1–1.

Market Assessment

The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Felgueiras 1932.

  • The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.
  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned Felgueiras 1932; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Felgueiras 1932 by 10.6 percentage points (26.1% vs model 36.6%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 24, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Farense 33.8% · Draw 29.6% · Felgueiras 1932 36.6%
    • xG · Farense 1.27 — Felgueiras 1932 1.33
  2. Aug 24, 2026 · 16:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Farense 2.20 · Draw 3.11 · Felgueiras 1932 3.66
    • Implied 1X2 · Farense 43.3% · Draw 30.6% · Felgueiras 1932 26.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 24, 2026 · 16:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Farense 2.20 · Draw 3.11 · Felgueiras 1932 3.66
    • Implied 1X2 · Farense 43.3% · Draw 30.6% · Felgueiras 1932 26.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 24, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 58/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (11 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • Statistical edge detected
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 16/100
Monitoring Confidence 20/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 18, 2026 · 02:28 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4456208

Closing Odds 3.66
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Farense 1–1 Felgueiras 1932
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Segunda Liga
  • Fixture: Farense vs Felgueiras 1932
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-24 17:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 33.8% · Draw 29.6% · Away 36.6%
  • xG (showing): Farense 1.27 — Felgueiras 1932 1.33 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Felgueiras 1932
  • Model: 36.6% · Implied: 26.0% · Probability edge: +10.6 pts · Est. EV: +5.1%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Segunda Liga Segunda Liga — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Lusitânia Lourosa 6 5 1 0 16
2 Penafiel 6 4 1 1 13
3 Sporting CP B 6 4 0 2 12
4 Vizela 6 3 2 1 11
5 Benfica B 6 3 1 2 10
6 União de Leiria 6 3 1 2 10
7 Leixoes 6 3 1 2 10
8 Academica 6 3 0 3 9
9 Tondela 6 3 0 3 9
10 Farense 5 2 2 1 8
11 Portimonense 6 2 1 3 7
12 AVS 6 1 3 2 6
13 Felgueiras 1932 6 1 3 2 6
14 Torreense 6 1 3 2 6
15 Amarante 6 1 2 3 5
16 Chaves 5 1 1 3 4
17 FC Porto B 6 1 1 4 4
18 Feirense 6 0 1 5 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Penafiel 6 13 5 +8 13
2 Lusitânia Lourosa 6 11 4 +7 16
3 União de Leiria 6 10 7 +3 10
4 Sporting CP B 6 8 6 +2 12
5 Leixoes 6 8 6 +2 10
6 Academica 6 8 10 -2 9
7 Vizela 6 7 4 +3 11
8 Benfica B 6 7 5 +2 10
9 Farense 5 7 5 +2 8
10 Tondela 6 7 6 +1 9
11 Torreense 6 7 9 -2 6
12 AVS 6 6 6 0 6
13 Felgueiras 1932 6 5 6 -1 6
14 Amarante 6 5 8 -3 5
15 Chaves 5 5 9 -4 4
16 Portimonense 6 4 6 -2 7
17 FC Porto B 6 4 13 -9 4
18 Feirense 6 1 8 -7 1
Segunda Liga Portugal. Segunda Liga Predictions