The model missed the final outcome (União de Leiria win 2–4).
The model had projected Leixoes at 37.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Leixoes União de Leiria ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-4 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leixoes | 37.5% | 39.2% | -1.7 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.6% | 28.6% | +1.0 pp | Aligned |
| União de Leiria | 32.9% | 32.1% | +0.7 pp | Aligned |
The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was União de Leiria win 2–4.
Market Assessment
The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.
- Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 6 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (6 goals)
- 1X2: model leaned Leixoes; match finished União de Leiria
Market lesson
The full-time result was União de Leiria win 2–4, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Aug 22, 2026 · 10:01 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Leixoes 37.6% · Draw 29.6% · União de Leiria 32.9%
- xG · Leixoes 1.35 — União de Leiria 1.25
-
Aug 22, 2026 · 09:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Leixoes 2.43 · Draw 3.33 · União de Leiria 2.97
- Implied 1X2 · Leixoes 39.2% · Draw 28.6% · União de Leiria 32.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 22, 2026 · 10:01 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Leixoes 2.43 · Draw 3.33 · União de Leiria 2.97
- Implied 1X2 · Leixoes 39.2% · Draw 28.6% · União de Leiria 32.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 22, 2026 · 10:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result União de Leiria win · 2–4
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Pass
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Explore More Predictions Content
Get Premium Predictions for Leixoes & União de Leiria!
Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.
Subscribe Now
Segunda Liga — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lusitânia Lourosa | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 16 |
| 2 | Penafiel | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 13 |
| 3 | Sporting CP B | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 12 |
| 4 | Vizela | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 5 | Benfica B | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 6 | União de Leiria | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 7 | Leixoes | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 8 | Academica | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 9 |
| 9 | Tondela | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 9 |
| 10 | Farense | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 11 | Portimonense | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 |
| 12 | AVS | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 6 |
| 13 | Felgueiras 1932 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 6 |
| 14 | Torreense | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 6 |
| 15 | Amarante | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| 16 | Chaves | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| 17 | FC Porto B | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 |
| 18 | Feirense | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Penafiel | 6 | 13 | 5 | +8 | 13 |
| 2 | Lusitânia Lourosa | 6 | 11 | 4 | +7 | 16 |
| 3 | União de Leiria | 6 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 10 |
| 4 | Sporting CP B | 6 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 12 |
| 5 | Leixoes | 6 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 10 |
| 6 | Academica | 6 | 8 | 10 | -2 | 9 |
| 7 | Vizela | 6 | 7 | 4 | +3 | 11 |
| 8 | Benfica B | 6 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 10 |
| 9 | Farense | 5 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 8 |
| 10 | Tondela | 6 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 9 |
| 11 | Torreense | 6 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 6 |
| 12 | AVS | 6 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 6 |
| 13 | Felgueiras 1932 | 6 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 6 |
| 14 | Amarante | 6 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 5 |
| 15 | Chaves | 5 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 4 |
| 16 | Portimonense | 6 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 7 |
| 17 | FC Porto B | 6 | 4 | 13 | -9 | 4 |
| 18 | Feirense | 6 | 1 | 8 | -7 | 1 |
