Predictions / Football / Germany. 2. Bundesliga / Energie Cottbus vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth

Prediction Audit: Energie Cottbus vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Energie Cottbus Energie Cottbus
Aug 29, 2026 - 11:00
3 1.30
4 1.96
xG Accuracy: 36%
SpVgg Greuther Fürth SpVgg Greuther Fürth

AI correctly predicted the SpVgg Greuther Fürth win.

The match finished 3–4, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade A

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (7 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 SpVgg Greuther Fürth SpVgg Greuther Fürth ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-2, 0-1, 0-2, 2-1 3-4 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The model rates SpVgg Greuther Fürth considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: SpVgg Greuther Fürth +10.1 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Energie Cottbus 27.7% 37.1% -9.4 pp Market Higher
Draw 25.1% 25.7% -0.7 pp Aligned
SpVgg Greuther Fürth 47.3% 37.2% +10.1 pp Model Edge

The statistical model estimates SpVgg Greuther Fürth's win probability at 47.3%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 37.2%, a difference of 10.1 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (SpVgg Greuther Fürth win 3–4).

Market Assessment

The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on SpVgg Greuther Fürth.

  • The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.
  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 3.26) — 7 goals materialised
  • SpVgg Greuther Fürth attacking xG significantly stronger (1.96 vs 1.30)
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced SpVgg Greuther Fürth more conservatively (37.2% vs model 47.3%, 10.1 pp), but the model's lean was validated (SpVgg Greuther Fürth win 3–4).

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 29, 2026 · 19:17 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Energie Cottbus 27.6% · Draw 25.0% · SpVgg Greuther Fürth 47.4%
    • xG · Energie Cottbus 1.30 — SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.96
  2. Aug 29, 2026 · 10:33 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Energie Cottbus 2.61 · Draw 3.76 · SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2.60
    • Implied 1X2 · Energie Cottbus 37.1% · Draw 25.7% · SpVgg Greuther Fürth 37.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 29, 2026 · 11:02 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Energie Cottbus 2.61 · Draw 3.76 · SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2.60
    • Implied 1X2 · Energie Cottbus 37.1% · Draw 25.7% · SpVgg Greuther Fürth 37.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 29, 2026 · 11:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result SpVgg Greuther Fürth win · 3–4
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 58/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (10 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • Statistical edge detected
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 49/100
Betting Confidence 46/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 23, 2026 · 01:37 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-5126544

Closing Odds 2.6
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result SpVgg Greuther Fürth win · Energie Cottbus 3–4 SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: 2. Bundesliga
  • Fixture: Energie Cottbus vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-29 11:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 35.0% · Draw 35.0% · Away 30.0%
  • xG (showing): Energie Cottbus 1.3 — SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.96 (total xG ≈ 3.26)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 16, 2026 (UTC)

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2. Bundesliga 2. Bundesliga — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 1. FC Nürnberg 5 4 1 0 13
2 Hertha BSC 4 4 0 0 12
3 1. FC Magdeburg 5 3 0 2 9
4 1. FC Heidenheim 4 3 0 1 9
5 VfL Wolfsburg 5 2 2 1 8
6 1. FC Kaiserslautern 5 2 2 1 8
7 VfL Bochum 5 2 1 2 7
8 FC St. Pauli 5 1 3 1 6
9 VfL Osnabrück 4 2 0 2 6
10 SpVgg Greuther Fürth 5 1 2 2 5
11 Karlsruher SC 4 1 2 1 5
12 Eintracht Braunschweig 5 1 1 3 4
13 Energie Cottbus 4 1 1 2 4
14 Arminia Bielefeld 5 1 1 3 4
15 Hannover 96 5 1 1 3 4
16 SV Darmstadt 98 5 1 1 3 4
17 Dynamo Dresden 5 1 1 3 4
18 Holstein Kiel 4 0 3 1 3
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 1. FC Nürnberg 5 15 6 +9 13
2 Hertha BSC 4 12 5 +7 12
3 Eintracht Braunschweig 5 12 12 0 4
4 1. FC Heidenheim 4 11 10 +1 9
5 VfL Wolfsburg 5 10 7 +3 8
6 1. FC Magdeburg 5 10 8 +2 9
7 Energie Cottbus 4 10 12 -2 4
8 SpVgg Greuther Fürth 5 8 10 -2 5
9 Arminia Bielefeld 5 8 10 -2 4
10 FC St. Pauli 5 7 7 0 6
11 VfL Osnabrück 4 7 8 -1 6
12 Dynamo Dresden 5 7 12 -5 4
13 Karlsruher SC 4 6 8 -2 5
14 Holstein Kiel 4 6 8 -2 3
15 1. FC Kaiserslautern 5 5 4 +1 8
16 Hannover 96 5 5 8 -3 4
17 VfL Bochum 5 4 4 0 7
18 SV Darmstadt 98 5 4 8 -4 4
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Arminia Bielefeld 5 5.9 2.9 +3.0 4
2 Hannover 96 5 6.3 4.0 +2.3 4
3 VfL Wolfsburg 5 6.0 3.7 +2.3 8
4 Hertha BSC 4 7.5 5.6 +1.9 12
5 1. FC Heidenheim 4 7.7 6.0 +1.7 9
6 Holstein Kiel 4 5.6 4.1 +1.5 3
7 FC St. Pauli 5 5.7 4.3 +1.4 6
8 VfL Bochum 5 3.8 2.6 +1.2 7
9 Eintracht Braunschweig 5 9.4 8.5 +0.9 4
10 SpVgg Greuther Fürth 5 6.9 7.0 -0.1 5
11 1. FC Kaiserslautern 5 2.6 3.2 -0.6 8
12 1. FC Nürnberg 5 4.2 5.2 -1.0 13
13 Karlsruher SC 4 3.8 5.3 -1.5 5
14 VfL Osnabrück 4 5.7 7.7 -2.0 6
15 SV Darmstadt 98 5 2.0 4.3 -2.3 4
16 Dynamo Dresden 5 3.4 5.8 -2.4 4
17 1. FC Magdeburg 5 4.7 7.7 -3.0 9
18 Energie Cottbus 4 5.0 8.3 -3.3 4
2. Bundesliga Germany. 2. Bundesliga Predictions