Predictions / Football / Tanzania. Ligi kuu Bara / Tanzania Prisons vs Mbeya City

Prediction Audit: Tanzania Prisons vs Mbeya City Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Tanzania Prisons Tanzania Prisons
Jul 05, 2026 - 13:00
0 1.17
2 0.92
xG Accuracy: 54%
Mbeya City Mbeya City

The model missed the final outcome (Mbeya City win 0–2).

The model had projected Tanzania Prisons at 35.2%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Tanzania Prisons Mbeya City ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-0, 1-1, 0-0, 0-1, 2-0 0-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Mbeya City higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Mbeya City -13.1 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Tanzania Prisons 35.2% 26.6% +8.6 pp Model Higher
Draw 32.5% 27.9% +4.5 pp Aligned
Mbeya City 32.3% 45.4% -13.1 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Mbeya City's win probability at 45.4%, compared with the model's estimate of 32.3%, a difference of 13.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Mbeya City win 0–2.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Mbeya City than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Low-scoring profile materialised (ΣxG 2.09, 2 goals)
  • Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned Tanzania Prisons; match finished Mbeya City
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Tanzania Prisons by 13.1 percentage points (48.3% vs model 35.2%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jul 05, 2026 · 19:41 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Tanzania Prisons 35.2% · Draw 32.5% · Mbeya City 32.4%
    • xG · Tanzania Prisons 1.17 — Mbeya City 0.92
  2. Jul 05, 2026 · 12:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Tanzania Prisons 3.38 · Draw 3.22 · Mbeya City 1.98
    • Implied 1X2 · Tanzania Prisons 26.6% · Draw 27.9% · Mbeya City 45.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jul 05, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Tanzania Prisons 3.38 · Draw 3.22 · Mbeya City 1.98
    • Implied 1X2 · Tanzania Prisons 26.6% · Draw 27.9% · Mbeya City 45.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jul 05, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Mbeya City win · 0–2
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 56/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (13 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 11/100
Monitoring Confidence 19/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 03, 2026 · 08:07 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2919250

Closing Odds 1.98
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Mbeya City win · Tanzania Prisons 0–2 Mbeya City
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Ligi kuu Bara
  • Fixture: Tanzania Prisons vs Mbeya City
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-05 13:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 45.0% · Draw 45.0% · Away 10.0%
  • xG (showing): Tanzania Prisons 1.17 — Mbeya City 0.92 (total xG ≈ 2.09)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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Ligi kuu Bara Ligi kuu Bara — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Young Africans 30 23 6 1 75
2 Simba 30 22 7 1 73
3 Azam 30 18 10 2 64
4 Singida Fountain Gate 30 15 5 10 50
5 Kitayosce 30 11 10 9 43
6 JKT Tanzania 30 10 12 8 42
7 Pamba Jiji 30 9 9 12 36
8 Coastal Union 30 9 9 12 36
9 Dodoma Jiji 30 8 11 11 35
10 Namungo 30 7 13 10 34
11 Mashujaa 30 7 12 11 33
12 Singida Big Stars 30 9 6 15 33
13 Tanzania Prisons 30 9 5 16 32
14 Mbeya City 30 7 9 14 30
15 Mtibwa Sugar 30 6 9 15 27
16 KMC 30 2 3 25 9
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Young Africans 30 71 9 +62 75
2 Simba 30 54 11 +43 73
3 Singida Fountain Gate 30 47 35 +12 50
4 Azam 30 46 12 +34 64
5 Kitayosce 30 33 28 +5 43
6 Pamba Jiji 30 32 35 -3 36
7 Coastal Union 30 31 37 -6 36
8 JKT Tanzania 30 30 33 -3 42
9 Namungo 30 25 32 -7 34
10 Dodoma Jiji 30 25 36 -11 35
11 Singida Big Stars 30 25 44 -19 33
12 Mtibwa Sugar 30 25 48 -23 27
13 Mbeya City 30 24 41 -17 30
14 Tanzania Prisons 30 23 41 -18 32
15 KMC 30 16 53 -37 9
16 Mashujaa 30 15 27 -12 33
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