Predictions / Football / Morocco. Botola 2 / Riadi Salmi vs Chabab Ben Guerir

Prediction Audit: Riadi Salmi vs Chabab Ben Guerir Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Riadi Salmi Riadi Salmi
Jul 05, 2026 - 15:00
1 1.09
1 0.84
xG Accuracy: 93%
Chabab Ben Guerir Chabab Ben Guerir

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).

The model had projected Riadi Salmi at 42.0%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Riadi Salmi Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-0, 0-0, 1-1, 0-1, 2-0 1-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices Riadi Salmi higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Riadi Salmi -6.5 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Riadi Salmi 42.0% 48.5% -6.5 pp Market Higher
Draw 33.7% 30.6% +3.1 pp Aligned
Chabab Ben Guerir 24.2% 20.9% +3.3 pp Aligned

The closing market estimates Riadi Salmi's win probability at 48.5%, compared with the model's estimate of 42.0%, a difference of 6.5 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 1–1.

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Riadi Salmi. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Low-scoring profile materialised (ΣxG 1.93, 2 goals)
  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • 1X2: model leaned Riadi Salmi; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Riadi Salmi by 6.5 percentage points (48.5% vs model 42.0%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jul 05, 2026 · 19:53 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Riadi Salmi 42.0% · Draw 33.8% · Chabab Ben Guerir 24.2%
    • xG · Riadi Salmi 1.09 — Chabab Ben Guerir 0.84
  2. Jul 05, 2026 · 14:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Riadi Salmi 1.83 · Draw 2.90 · Chabab Ben Guerir 4.25
    • Implied 1X2 · Riadi Salmi 48.5% · Draw 30.6% · Chabab Ben Guerir 20.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jul 05, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Riadi Salmi 1.83 · Draw 2.90 · Chabab Ben Guerir 4.25
    • Implied 1X2 · Riadi Salmi 48.5% · Draw 30.6% · Chabab Ben Guerir 20.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jul 05, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 76/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 67/100
Betting Confidence 79/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 03, 2026 · 10:46 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2923486

Closing Odds 1.83
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Riadi Salmi 1–1 Chabab Ben Guerir
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Botola 2
  • Fixture: Riadi Salmi vs Chabab Ben Guerir
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-05 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 45.0% · Draw 45.0% · Away 10.0%
  • xG (showing): Riadi Salmi 1.09 — Chabab Ben Guerir 0.84 (total xG ≈ 1.93)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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Botola 2 Botola 2 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Moghreb Tetouan 30 14 11 5 53
2 Widad Témara 30 13 14 3 53
3 Amal Tiznit 30 10 16 4 46
4 El Massira 30 11 11 8 44
5 Chabab Atl. Khenifra 30 11 10 9 43
6 Riadi Salmi 30 10 12 8 42
7 Stade Marocain 30 11 8 11 41
8 Wydad Fès 30 9 11 10 38
9 Mouloudia Oujda 30 8 13 9 37
10 Chabab Ben Guerir 30 8 13 9 37
11 USM Oujda 30 9 10 11 37
12 Chabab Mohammédia 30 9 9 12 36
13 KAC Kenitra 30 8 12 10 36
14 Union Sportive Boujaad 30 7 14 9 35
15 Raja Beni Mellal 30 7 11 12 32
16 Racing de Casablanca 30 3 9 18 18
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Riadi Salmi 30 37 35 +2 42
2 Widad Témara 30 36 26 +10 53
3 Amal Tiznit 30 36 26 +10 46
4 KAC Kenitra 30 35 36 -1 36
5 Mouloudia Oujda 30 35 38 -3 37
6 Wydad Fès 30 34 30 +4 38
7 Moghreb Tetouan 30 33 22 +11 53
8 El Massira 30 29 21 +8 44
9 USM Oujda 30 29 30 -1 37
10 Chabab Atl. Khenifra 30 26 24 +2 43
11 Union Sportive Boujaad 30 25 22 +3 35
12 Chabab Ben Guerir 30 25 28 -3 37
13 Raja Beni Mellal 30 25 32 -7 32
14 Chabab Mohammédia 30 25 37 -12 36
15 Stade Marocain 30 23 24 -1 41
16 Racing de Casablanca 30 21 43 -22 18
Botola 2 Morocco. Botola 2 Predictions