Predictions / Football / Morocco. Botola 2 / Chabab Mohammédia vs KAC Kenitra

Prediction Audit: Chabab Mohammédia vs KAC Kenitra Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Chabab Mohammédia Chabab Mohammédia
Jul 05, 2026 - 15:00
4 0.94
3 0.99
xG Accuracy: 25%
KAC Kenitra KAC Kenitra

The model missed the final outcome (Chabab Mohammédia win 4–3).

The model had projected Draw at 35.4%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (7 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Draw Chabab Mohammédia ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 0-0, 0-1, 1-0, 1-1, 0-2 4-3 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices Chabab Mohammédia higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Chabab Mohammédia -7.4 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Chabab Mohammédia 34.9% 42.3% -7.4 pp Market Higher
Draw 35.4% 35.1% +0.2 pp Aligned
KAC Kenitra 29.8% 22.6% +7.2 pp Model Higher

The closing market estimates Chabab Mohammédia's win probability at 42.3%, compared with the model's estimate of 34.9%, a difference of 7.4 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Chabab Mohammédia win 4–3.

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Chabab Mohammédia. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (7 goals)

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Draw by 7.4 percentage points (42.8% vs model 35.4%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jul 05, 2026 · 19:52 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Chabab Mohammédia 34.9% · Draw 35.4% · KAC Kenitra 29.8%
    • xG · Chabab Mohammédia 0.94 — KAC Kenitra 0.99
  2. Jul 05, 2026 · 14:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Chabab Mohammédia 2.10 · Draw 2.53 · KAC Kenitra 3.94
    • Implied 1X2 · Chabab Mohammédia 42.3% · Draw 35.1% · KAC Kenitra 22.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jul 05, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Chabab Mohammédia 2.10 · Draw 2.53 · KAC Kenitra 3.94
    • Implied 1X2 · Chabab Mohammédia 42.3% · Draw 35.1% · KAC Kenitra 22.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jul 05, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Chabab Mohammédia win · 4–3
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 75/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 21/100
Monitoring Confidence 33/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 30, 2026 · 23:17 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2543003

Closing Odds 2.1
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Chabab Mohammédia win · Chabab Mohammédia 4–3 KAC Kenitra
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Botola 2
  • Fixture: Chabab Mohammédia vs KAC Kenitra
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-05 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 35.0% · Draw 35.0% · Away 30.0%
  • xG (showing): Chabab Mohammédia 0.94 — KAC Kenitra 0.99 (total xG ≈ 1.93)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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Botola 2 Botola 2 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Moghreb Tetouan 30 14 11 5 53
2 Widad Témara 30 13 14 3 53
3 Amal Tiznit 30 10 16 4 46
4 El Massira 30 11 11 8 44
5 Chabab Atl. Khenifra 30 11 10 9 43
6 Riadi Salmi 30 10 12 8 42
7 Stade Marocain 30 11 8 11 41
8 Wydad Fès 30 9 11 10 38
9 Mouloudia Oujda 30 8 13 9 37
10 Chabab Ben Guerir 30 8 13 9 37
11 USM Oujda 30 9 10 11 37
12 Chabab Mohammédia 30 9 9 12 36
13 KAC Kenitra 30 8 12 10 36
14 Union Sportive Boujaad 30 7 14 9 35
15 Raja Beni Mellal 30 7 11 12 32
16 Racing de Casablanca 30 3 9 18 18
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Riadi Salmi 30 37 35 +2 42
2 Widad Témara 30 36 26 +10 53
3 Amal Tiznit 30 36 26 +10 46
4 KAC Kenitra 30 35 36 -1 36
5 Mouloudia Oujda 30 35 38 -3 37
6 Wydad Fès 30 34 30 +4 38
7 Moghreb Tetouan 30 33 22 +11 53
8 El Massira 30 29 21 +8 44
9 USM Oujda 30 29 30 -1 37
10 Chabab Atl. Khenifra 30 26 24 +2 43
11 Union Sportive Boujaad 30 25 22 +3 35
12 Chabab Ben Guerir 30 25 28 -3 37
13 Raja Beni Mellal 30 25 32 -7 32
14 Chabab Mohammédia 30 25 37 -12 36
15 Stade Marocain 30 23 24 -1 41
16 Racing de Casablanca 30 21 43 -22 18
Botola 2 Morocco. Botola 2 Predictions