Predictions / Football / Wales. Premier League / Flint Town United vs Ammanford AFC

Prediction Audit: Flint Town United vs Ammanford AFC Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Flint Town United Flint Town United
Sep 26, 2026 - 13:30
3 1.29
0 1.31
xG Accuracy: 44%
Ammanford AFC Ammanford AFC

The model missed the final outcome (Flint Town United win 3–0).

The model had projected Ammanford AFC at 35.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Ammanford AFC Flint Town United ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 3-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Flint Town United higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Flint Town United -33.6 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Flint Town United 34.7% 68.3% -33.6 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 18.6% +11.1 pp Model Edge
Ammanford AFC 35.6% 13.2% +22.5 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Flint Town United's win probability at 68.3%, compared with the model's estimate of 34.7%, a difference of 33.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Flint Town United win 3–0.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Ammanford AFC; match finished Flint Town United

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Ammanford AFC by 33.6 percentage points (69.2% vs model 35.6%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 26, 2026 · 13:30 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Flint Town United 34.7% · Draw 29.7% · Ammanford AFC 35.6%
    • xG · Flint Town United 1.29 — Ammanford AFC 1.31
  2. Sep 26, 2026 · 13:07 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Flint Town United 1.37 · Draw 4.96 · Ammanford AFC 6.93
    • Implied 1X2 · Flint Town United 67.8% · Draw 18.7% · Ammanford AFC 13.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 26, 2026 · 13:30 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Flint Town United 1.38 · Draw 5.08 · Ammanford AFC 7.16
    • Implied 1X2 · Flint Town United 68.3% · Draw 18.6% · Ammanford AFC 13.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 26, 2026 · 13:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Flint Town United win · 3–0
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 32/100 · Low
  • Validation: Fail
  • Large market gap (34 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market strongly disagrees on price
  • Validation failed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Monitoring Confidence 9/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 21, 2026 · 01:29 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10092710

Closing Odds 1.38
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Flint Town United win · Flint Town United 3–0 Ammanford AFC
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Model favours Ammanford AFC; market prices Flint Town United instead — inputs may be missing or stale.

  • Model: Flint Town United 1.29 xG vs Ammanford AFC 1.31 → Ammanford AFC 35.6%
  • Market: Flint Town United ~13.2% implied
  • Validation failed — do not treat 1X2 EV as actionable.

Do not act on 1X2 value until validation passes. Structural leans (O/U, BTTS) need separate odds review.

Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS No (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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Premier League Premier League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 The New Saints 10 9 1 0 28
2 Penybont 10 7 3 0 24
3 Caernarfon Town 10 7 1 2 22
4 GAP Connah S Quay FC 10 7 1 2 22
5 Barry Town 10 7 1 2 22
6 Colwyn Bay 10 6 1 3 19
7 Llandudno 10 5 1 4 16
8 Airbus UK 10 5 0 5 15
9 Cambrian & Clydach 10 4 3 3 15
10 Cardiff MET 9 4 2 3 14
11 Haverfordwest County AFC 9 3 1 5 10
12 Briton Ferry 10 2 2 6 8
13 Trefelin 10 0 3 7 3
14 Ammanford AFC 10 0 3 7 3
15 Flint Town United 10 0 2 8 2
16 Holywell 10 0 1 9 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Caernarfon Town 10 33 11 +22 22
2 The New Saints 10 26 4 +22 28
3 Barry Town 10 25 16 +9 22
4 GAP Connah S Quay FC 10 23 7 +16 22
5 Penybont 10 20 8 +12 24
6 Colwyn Bay 10 20 14 +6 19
7 Cardiff MET 9 19 11 +8 14
8 Llandudno 10 18 14 +4 16
9 Airbus UK 10 17 15 +2 15
10 Cambrian & Clydach 10 17 20 -3 15
11 Holywell 10 11 35 -24 1
12 Briton Ferry 10 9 19 -10 8
13 Flint Town United 10 8 24 -16 2
14 Haverfordwest County AFC 9 7 14 -7 10
15 Ammanford AFC 10 7 28 -21 3
16 Trefelin 10 4 24 -20 3
Premier League Wales. Premier League Predictions