Predictions / Football / Wales. Premier League / Trefelin vs Cambrian & Clydach

Prediction Audit: Trefelin vs Cambrian & Clydach Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Trefelin Trefelin
Sep 15, 2026 - 18:45
0 1.32
4 1.28
xG Accuracy: 33%
Cambrian & Clydach Cambrian & Clydach

The model missed the final outcome (Cambrian & Clydach win 0–4).

The model had projected Trefelin at 36.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Trefelin Cambrian & Clydach ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-4 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Cambrian & Clydach higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Cambrian & Clydach -15.9 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Trefelin 36.1% 24.4% +11.7 pp Model Edge
Draw 29.6% 25.4% +4.3 pp Aligned
Cambrian & Clydach 34.2% 50.2% -15.9 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Cambrian & Clydach's win probability at 50.2%, compared with the model's estimate of 34.2%, a difference of 15.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.

After full time, the result was Cambrian & Clydach win 0–4.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Cambrian & Clydach than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Trefelin; match finished Cambrian & Clydach

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Trefelin by 15.9 percentage points (52.0% vs model 36.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 15, 2026 · 18:43 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Trefelin 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Cambrian & Clydach 34.2%
    • xG · Trefelin 1.32 — Cambrian & Clydach 1.28
  2. Sep 15, 2026 · 18:16 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Trefelin 3.80 · Draw 3.66 · Cambrian & Clydach 1.85
    • Implied 1X2 · Trefelin 24.4% · Draw 25.4% · Cambrian & Clydach 50.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 15, 2026 · 18:43 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
    • 1X2 odds · Trefelin 3.80 · Draw 3.66 · Cambrian & Clydach 1.85
    • Implied 1X2 · Trefelin 24.4% · Draw 25.4% · Cambrian & Clydach 50.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 15, 2026 · 18:45 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Cambrian & Clydach win · 0–4
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 55/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (16 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 7/100
Monitoring Confidence 19/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 09, 2026 · 02:42 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7704833

Closing Odds 1.85
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Cambrian & Clydach win · Trefelin 0–4 Cambrian & Clydach
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Premier League
  • Fixture: Trefelin vs Cambrian & Clydach
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-15 18:45:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
  • xG (showing): Trefelin 1.32 — Cambrian & Clydach 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 43.9% · Probability edge: +7.9 pts · Est. EV: +14.0%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Premier League Premier League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 The New Saints 10 9 1 0 28
2 Penybont 10 7 3 0 24
3 Caernarfon Town 10 7 1 2 22
4 GAP Connah S Quay FC 10 7 1 2 22
5 Barry Town 10 7 1 2 22
6 Colwyn Bay 10 6 1 3 19
7 Llandudno 10 5 1 4 16
8 Airbus UK 10 5 0 5 15
9 Cambrian & Clydach 10 4 3 3 15
10 Cardiff MET 9 4 2 3 14
11 Haverfordwest County AFC 9 3 1 5 10
12 Briton Ferry 10 2 2 6 8
13 Trefelin 10 0 3 7 3
14 Ammanford AFC 10 0 3 7 3
15 Flint Town United 10 0 2 8 2
16 Holywell 10 0 1 9 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Caernarfon Town 10 33 11 +22 22
2 The New Saints 10 26 4 +22 28
3 Barry Town 10 25 16 +9 22
4 GAP Connah S Quay FC 10 23 7 +16 22
5 Penybont 10 20 8 +12 24
6 Colwyn Bay 10 20 14 +6 19
7 Cardiff MET 9 19 11 +8 14
8 Llandudno 10 18 14 +4 16
9 Airbus UK 10 17 15 +2 15
10 Cambrian & Clydach 10 17 20 -3 15
11 Holywell 10 11 35 -24 1
12 Briton Ferry 10 9 19 -10 8
13 Flint Town United 10 8 24 -16 2
14 Haverfordwest County AFC 9 7 14 -7 10
15 Ammanford AFC 10 7 28 -21 3
16 Trefelin 10 4 24 -20 3
Premier League Wales. Premier League Predictions