Predictions / Football / Wales. Premier League / Penybont vs Colwyn Bay

Prediction Audit: Penybont vs Colwyn Bay Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Penybont Penybont
Sep 05, 2026 - 11:30
1 1.23
0 1.37
xG Accuracy: 64%
Colwyn Bay Colwyn Bay

The model missed the final outcome (Penybont win 1–0).

The model had projected Colwyn Bay at 38.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Colwyn Bay Penybont ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-0 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The model rates Colwyn Bay considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: Colwyn Bay +13.1 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Penybont 31.9% 43.9% -11.9 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 30.8% -1.2 pp Aligned
Colwyn Bay 38.5% 25.4% +13.1 pp Model Edge

The statistical model estimates Colwyn Bay's win probability at 38.5%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 25.4%, a difference of 13.1 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Penybont win 1–0.

Market Assessment

The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Colwyn Bay.

  • The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.
  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 1–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • 1X2: model leaned Colwyn Bay; match finished Penybont

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Colwyn Bay by 13.1 percentage points (25.4% vs model 38.5%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 05, 2026 · 11:30 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Penybont 31.9% · Draw 29.6% · Colwyn Bay 38.5%
    • xG · Penybont 1.23 — Colwyn Bay 1.37
  2. Sep 05, 2026 · 11:03 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Penybont 2.14 · Draw 3.05 · Colwyn Bay 3.70
    • Implied 1X2 · Penybont 43.9% · Draw 30.8% · Colwyn Bay 25.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 05, 2026 · 11:30 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Penybont 2.14 · Draw 3.05 · Colwyn Bay 3.70
    • Implied 1X2 · Penybont 43.9% · Draw 30.8% · Colwyn Bay 25.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 05, 2026 · 11:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Penybont win · 1–0
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 56/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (13 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • Statistical edge detected
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 11/100
Monitoring Confidence 19/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 30, 2026 · 01:31 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6130014

Closing Odds 3.7
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Penybont win · Penybont 1–0 Colwyn Bay
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Premier League
  • Fixture: Penybont vs Colwyn Bay
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-05 11:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 31.9% · Draw 29.6% · Away 38.5%
  • xG (showing): Penybont 1.23 — Colwyn Bay 1.37 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Colwyn Bay
  • Model: 38.5% · Implied: 25.4% · Probability edge: +13.1 pts · Est. EV: +5.5%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Premier League Premier League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 The New Saints 10 9 1 0 28
2 Penybont 10 7 3 0 24
3 Caernarfon Town 10 7 1 2 22
4 GAP Connah S Quay FC 10 7 1 2 22
5 Barry Town 10 7 1 2 22
6 Colwyn Bay 10 6 1 3 19
7 Llandudno 10 5 1 4 16
8 Airbus UK 10 5 0 5 15
9 Cambrian & Clydach 10 4 3 3 15
10 Cardiff MET 9 4 2 3 14
11 Haverfordwest County AFC 9 3 1 5 10
12 Briton Ferry 10 2 2 6 8
13 Trefelin 10 0 3 7 3
14 Ammanford AFC 10 0 3 7 3
15 Flint Town United 10 0 2 8 2
16 Holywell 10 0 1 9 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Caernarfon Town 10 33 11 +22 22
2 The New Saints 10 26 4 +22 28
3 Barry Town 10 25 16 +9 22
4 GAP Connah S Quay FC 10 23 7 +16 22
5 Penybont 10 20 8 +12 24
6 Colwyn Bay 10 20 14 +6 19
7 Cardiff MET 9 19 11 +8 14
8 Llandudno 10 18 14 +4 16
9 Airbus UK 10 17 15 +2 15
10 Cambrian & Clydach 10 17 20 -3 15
11 Holywell 10 11 35 -24 1
12 Briton Ferry 10 9 19 -10 8
13 Flint Town United 10 8 24 -16 2
14 Haverfordwest County AFC 9 7 14 -7 10
15 Ammanford AFC 10 7 28 -21 3
16 Trefelin 10 4 24 -20 3
Premier League Wales. Premier League Predictions