Predictions / Football / Wales. Premier League / GAP Connah S Quay FC vs Haverfordwest County AFC

Prediction Audit: GAP Connah S Quay FC vs Haverfordwest County AFC Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

GAP Connah S Quay FC GAP Connah S Quay FC
Sep 04, 2026 - 18:45
1 1.35
1 1.25
xG Accuracy: 85%
Haverfordwest County AFC Haverfordwest County AFC

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).

The model had projected GAP Connah S Quay FC at 37.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 GAP Connah S Quay FC Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices GAP Connah S Quay FC higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: GAP Connah S Quay FC -33.7 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
GAP Connah S Quay FC 37.5% 71.2% -33.7 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 16.4% +13.2 pp Model Edge
Haverfordwest County AFC 32.9% 12.4% +20.5 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates GAP Connah S Quay FC's win probability at 71.2%, compared with the model's estimate of 37.5%, a difference of 33.7 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 1–1.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned GAP Connah S Quay FC; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on GAP Connah S Quay FC by 33.7 percentage points (71.2% vs model 37.5%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 04, 2026 · 18:45 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · GAP Connah S Quay FC 37.6% · Draw 29.6% · Haverfordwest County AFC 32.9%
    • xG · GAP Connah S Quay FC 1.35 — Haverfordwest County AFC 1.25
  2. Sep 04, 2026 · 18:15 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · GAP Connah S Quay FC 1.30 · Draw 5.66 · Haverfordwest County AFC 7.48
    • Implied 1X2 · GAP Connah S Quay FC 71.2% · Draw 16.4% · Haverfordwest County AFC 12.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 04, 2026 · 18:45 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · GAP Connah S Quay FC 1.30 · Draw 5.66 · Haverfordwest County AFC 7.48
    • Implied 1X2 · GAP Connah S Quay FC 71.2% · Draw 16.4% · Haverfordwest County AFC 12.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 04, 2026 · 18:45 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 32/100 · Low
  • Validation: Fail
  • Large market gap (34 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market strongly disagrees on price
  • Validation failed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Monitoring Confidence 9/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 29, 2026 · 02:59 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-5929122

Closing Odds 1.3
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · GAP Connah S Quay FC 1–1 Haverfordwest County AFC
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Model favours GAP Connah S Quay FC; market prices GAP Connah S Quay FC instead — inputs may be missing or stale.

  • Model: GAP Connah S Quay FC 1.35 xG vs Haverfordwest County AFC 1.25 → GAP Connah S Quay FC 37.5%
  • Market: GAP Connah S Quay FC ~71.2% implied
  • Validation failed — do not treat 1X2 EV as actionable.

Do not act on 1X2 value until validation passes. Structural leans (O/U, BTTS) need separate odds review.

Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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Premier League Premier League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 The New Saints 10 9 1 0 28
2 Penybont 10 7 3 0 24
3 Caernarfon Town 10 7 1 2 22
4 GAP Connah S Quay FC 10 7 1 2 22
5 Barry Town 10 7 1 2 22
6 Colwyn Bay 10 6 1 3 19
7 Llandudno 10 5 1 4 16
8 Airbus UK 10 5 0 5 15
9 Cambrian & Clydach 10 4 3 3 15
10 Cardiff MET 9 4 2 3 14
11 Haverfordwest County AFC 9 3 1 5 10
12 Briton Ferry 10 2 2 6 8
13 Trefelin 10 0 3 7 3
14 Ammanford AFC 10 0 3 7 3
15 Flint Town United 10 0 2 8 2
16 Holywell 10 0 1 9 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Caernarfon Town 10 33 11 +22 22
2 The New Saints 10 26 4 +22 28
3 Barry Town 10 25 16 +9 22
4 GAP Connah S Quay FC 10 23 7 +16 22
5 Penybont 10 20 8 +12 24
6 Colwyn Bay 10 20 14 +6 19
7 Cardiff MET 9 19 11 +8 14
8 Llandudno 10 18 14 +4 16
9 Airbus UK 10 17 15 +2 15
10 Cambrian & Clydach 10 17 20 -3 15
11 Holywell 10 11 35 -24 1
12 Briton Ferry 10 9 19 -10 8
13 Flint Town United 10 8 24 -16 2
14 Haverfordwest County AFC 9 7 14 -7 10
15 Ammanford AFC 10 7 28 -21 3
16 Trefelin 10 4 24 -20 3
Premier League Wales. Premier League Predictions