The model missed the final outcome (Airbus UK win 0–2).
The model had projected Briton Ferry at 38.0%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Briton Ferry Airbus UK ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-2 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Briton Ferry | 38.0% | 42.4% | -4.4 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.6% | 24.0% | +5.6 pp | Model Higher |
| Airbus UK | 32.4% | 33.6% | -1.2 pp | Aligned |
The statistical model estimates Draw's win probability at 29.6%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 24.0%, a difference of 5.6 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Airbus UK win 0–2.
Market Assessment
The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Draw.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- 1X2: model leaned Briton Ferry; match finished Airbus UK
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Briton Ferry by 5.6 percentage points (32.4% vs model 38.0%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 04, 2026 · 18:45 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Briton Ferry 38.0% · Draw 29.6% · Airbus UK 32.4%
- xG · Briton Ferry 1.36 — Airbus UK 1.24
-
Sep 04, 2026 · 18:15 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Briton Ferry 2.19 · Draw 3.87 · Airbus UK 2.76
- Implied 1X2 · Briton Ferry 42.4% · Draw 24.0% · Airbus UK 33.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 04, 2026 · 18:45 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Briton Ferry 2.19 · Draw 3.87 · Airbus UK 2.76
- Implied 1X2 · Briton Ferry 42.4% · Draw 24.0% · Airbus UK 33.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 04, 2026 · 18:45 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Airbus UK win · 0–2
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Pass
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Premier League — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The New Saints | 11 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 31 |
| 2 | Penybont | 11 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 27 |
| 3 | GAP Connah S Quay FC | 11 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 25 |
| 4 | Caernarfon Town | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 23 |
| 5 | Colwyn Bay | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 22 |
| 6 | Barry Town | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 22 |
| 7 | Cardiff MET | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 18 |
| 8 | Cambrian & Clydach | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 18 |
| 9 | Llandudno | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 16 |
| 10 | Airbus UK | 11 | 5 | 0 | 6 | 15 |
| 11 | Haverfordwest County AFC | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 10 |
| 12 | Briton Ferry | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 9 |
| 13 | Flint Town United | 11 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 5 |
| 14 | Trefelin | 11 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 3 |
| 15 | Ammanford AFC | 11 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 3 |
| 16 | Holywell | 11 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 2 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Caernarfon Town | 11 | 35 | 13 | +22 | 23 |
| 2 | The New Saints | 11 | 29 | 5 | +24 | 31 |
| 3 | GAP Connah S Quay FC | 11 | 27 | 8 | +19 | 25 |
| 4 | Barry Town | 11 | 26 | 20 | +6 | 22 |
| 5 | Penybont | 11 | 22 | 9 | +13 | 27 |
| 6 | Cardiff MET | 11 | 22 | 13 | +9 | 18 |
| 7 | Colwyn Bay | 11 | 21 | 14 | +7 | 22 |
| 8 | Llandudno | 11 | 21 | 18 | +3 | 16 |
| 9 | Cambrian & Clydach | 11 | 21 | 23 | -2 | 18 |
| 10 | Airbus UK | 11 | 18 | 17 | +1 | 15 |
| 11 | Holywell | 11 | 12 | 36 | -24 | 2 |
| 12 | Flint Town United | 11 | 11 | 24 | -13 | 5 |
| 13 | Briton Ferry | 11 | 10 | 20 | -10 | 9 |
| 14 | Haverfordwest County AFC | 11 | 7 | 16 | -9 | 10 |
| 15 | Ammanford AFC | 11 | 7 | 31 | -24 | 3 |
| 16 | Trefelin | 11 | 5 | 27 | -22 | 3 |
