Predictions / Football / Wales. Premier League / Haverfordwest County AFC vs Trefelin

Prediction Audit: Haverfordwest County AFC vs Trefelin Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Haverfordwest County AFC Haverfordwest County AFC
Aug 31, 2026 - 13:30
2 1.42
1 1.18
xG Accuracy: 81%
Trefelin Trefelin

AI correctly predicted the Haverfordwest County AFC win.

The match finished 2–1, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Haverfordwest County AFC Haverfordwest County AFC ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 2-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Haverfordwest County AFC higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Haverfordwest County AFC -14.6 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Haverfordwest County AFC 40.9% 55.5% -14.6 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.4% 24.1% +5.3 pp Model Higher
Trefelin 29.7% 20.5% +9.2 pp Model Higher

The closing market estimates Haverfordwest County AFC's win probability at 55.5%, compared with the model's estimate of 40.9%, a difference of 14.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Haverfordwest County AFC win 2–1).

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Haverfordwest County AFC than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Exact score 2–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Haverfordwest County AFC higher (55.5% vs model 40.9%, 14.6 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Haverfordwest County AFC win 2–1).

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 31, 2026 · 13:29 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Haverfordwest County AFC 41.0% · Draw 29.4% · Trefelin 29.6%
    • xG · Haverfordwest County AFC 1.42 — Trefelin 1.18
  2. Aug 31, 2026 · 12:59 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Haverfordwest County AFC 1.67 · Draw 3.85 · Trefelin 4.52
    • Implied 1X2 · Haverfordwest County AFC 55.5% · Draw 24.1% · Trefelin 20.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 31, 2026 · 13:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Haverfordwest County AFC 1.67 · Draw 3.85 · Trefelin 4.52
    • Implied 1X2 · Haverfordwest County AFC 55.5% · Draw 24.1% · Trefelin 20.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 31, 2026 · 13:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Haverfordwest County AFC win · 2–1
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 56/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (15 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 27/100
Betting Confidence 44/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 25, 2026 · 02:28 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-5398745

Closing Odds 1.67
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Haverfordwest County AFC win · Haverfordwest County AFC 2–1 Trefelin
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Premier League
  • Fixture: Haverfordwest County AFC vs Trefelin
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-31 13:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.0% · Draw 29.4% · Away 29.6%
  • xG (showing): Haverfordwest County AFC 1.42 — Trefelin 1.18 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.1% · No 45.9%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.1% · No 45.9%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Premier League Premier League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 The New Saints 10 9 1 0 28
2 Penybont 10 7 3 0 24
3 Caernarfon Town 10 7 1 2 22
4 GAP Connah S Quay FC 10 7 1 2 22
5 Barry Town 10 7 1 2 22
6 Colwyn Bay 10 6 1 3 19
7 Llandudno 10 5 1 4 16
8 Airbus UK 10 5 0 5 15
9 Cambrian & Clydach 10 4 3 3 15
10 Cardiff MET 9 4 2 3 14
11 Haverfordwest County AFC 9 3 1 5 10
12 Briton Ferry 10 2 2 6 8
13 Trefelin 10 0 3 7 3
14 Ammanford AFC 10 0 3 7 3
15 Flint Town United 10 0 2 8 2
16 Holywell 10 0 1 9 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Caernarfon Town 10 33 11 +22 22
2 The New Saints 10 26 4 +22 28
3 Barry Town 10 25 16 +9 22
4 GAP Connah S Quay FC 10 23 7 +16 22
5 Penybont 10 20 8 +12 24
6 Colwyn Bay 10 20 14 +6 19
7 Cardiff MET 9 19 11 +8 14
8 Llandudno 10 18 14 +4 16
9 Airbus UK 10 17 15 +2 15
10 Cambrian & Clydach 10 17 20 -3 15
11 Holywell 10 11 35 -24 1
12 Briton Ferry 10 9 19 -10 8
13 Flint Town United 10 8 24 -16 2
14 Haverfordwest County AFC 9 7 14 -7 10
15 Ammanford AFC 10 7 28 -21 3
16 Trefelin 10 4 24 -20 3
Premier League Wales. Premier League Predictions