AI correctly predicted the Caernarfon Town win.
The match finished 0–2, validating the model's directional assessment.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town ✔ Correct
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-2 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trefelin | 32.9% | 10.6% | +22.3 pp | Model Edge |
| Draw | 29.6% | 16.1% | +13.5 pp | Model Edge |
| Caernarfon Town | 37.5% | 73.3% | -35.8 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates Caernarfon Town's win probability at 73.3%, compared with the model's estimate of 37.5%, a difference of 35.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Caernarfon Town win 0–2).
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Caernarfon Town higher (73.3% vs model 37.5%, 35.8 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Caernarfon Town win 0–2).
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Aug 21, 2026 · 18:47 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Trefelin 32.9% · Draw 29.6% · Caernarfon Town 37.6%
- xG · Trefelin 1.25 — Caernarfon Town 1.35
-
Aug 21, 2026 · 18:18 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Trefelin 8.76 · Draw 5.73 · Caernarfon Town 1.26
- Implied 1X2 · Trefelin 10.6% · Draw 16.1% · Caernarfon Town 73.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 21, 2026 · 18:47 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Trefelin 8.76 · Draw 5.73 · Caernarfon Town 1.26
- Implied 1X2 · Trefelin 10.6% · Draw 16.1% · Caernarfon Town 73.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 21, 2026 · 18:45 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Caernarfon Town win · 0–2
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Fail
- Large market gap (36 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Market strongly disagrees on price
- Validation failed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Premier League — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The New Saints | 10 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 28 |
| 2 | Penybont | 10 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 24 |
| 3 | Caernarfon Town | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 22 |
| 4 | GAP Connah S Quay FC | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 22 |
| 5 | Barry Town | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 22 |
| 6 | Colwyn Bay | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 19 |
| 7 | Llandudno | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 16 |
| 8 | Airbus UK | 10 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 15 |
| 9 | Cambrian & Clydach | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 15 |
| 10 | Cardiff MET | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 11 | Haverfordwest County AFC | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 10 |
| 12 | Briton Ferry | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 8 |
| 13 | Trefelin | 10 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 3 |
| 14 | Ammanford AFC | 10 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 3 |
| 15 | Flint Town United | 10 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 2 |
| 16 | Holywell | 10 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 1 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Caernarfon Town | 10 | 33 | 11 | +22 | 22 |
| 2 | The New Saints | 10 | 26 | 4 | +22 | 28 |
| 3 | Barry Town | 10 | 25 | 16 | +9 | 22 |
| 4 | GAP Connah S Quay FC | 10 | 23 | 7 | +16 | 22 |
| 5 | Penybont | 10 | 20 | 8 | +12 | 24 |
| 6 | Colwyn Bay | 10 | 20 | 14 | +6 | 19 |
| 7 | Cardiff MET | 9 | 19 | 11 | +8 | 14 |
| 8 | Llandudno | 10 | 18 | 14 | +4 | 16 |
| 9 | Airbus UK | 10 | 17 | 15 | +2 | 15 |
| 10 | Cambrian & Clydach | 10 | 17 | 20 | -3 | 15 |
| 11 | Holywell | 10 | 11 | 35 | -24 | 1 |
| 12 | Briton Ferry | 10 | 9 | 19 | -10 | 8 |
| 13 | Flint Town United | 10 | 8 | 24 | -16 | 2 |
| 14 | Haverfordwest County AFC | 9 | 7 | 14 | -7 | 10 |
| 15 | Ammanford AFC | 10 | 7 | 28 | -21 | 3 |
| 16 | Trefelin | 10 | 4 | 24 | -20 | 3 |
