Predictions / Football / Wales. Premier League / Haverfordwest County AFC vs Cambrian & Clydach

Prediction Audit: Haverfordwest County AFC vs Cambrian & Clydach Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Haverfordwest County AFC Haverfordwest County AFC
Aug 21, 2026 - 18:45
0 1.42
3 1.18
xG Accuracy: 41%
Cambrian & Clydach Cambrian & Clydach

The model missed the final outcome (Cambrian & Clydach win 0–3).

The model had projected Haverfordwest County AFC at 40.9%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Haverfordwest County AFC Cambrian & Clydach ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 0-3 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Haverfordwest County AFC higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Haverfordwest County AFC -11.9 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Haverfordwest County AFC 40.9% 52.8% -11.9 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.4% 22.8% +6.6 pp Model Higher
Cambrian & Clydach 29.7% 24.4% +5.3 pp Model Higher

The closing market estimates Haverfordwest County AFC's win probability at 52.8%, compared with the model's estimate of 40.9%, a difference of 11.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Cambrian & Clydach win 0–3.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Haverfordwest County AFC than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Haverfordwest County AFC by 11.9 percentage points (52.8% vs model 40.9%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 21, 2026 · 18:46 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Haverfordwest County AFC 41.0% · Draw 29.4% · Cambrian & Clydach 29.6%
    • xG · Haverfordwest County AFC 1.42 — Cambrian & Clydach 1.18
  2. Aug 21, 2026 · 18:17 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Haverfordwest County AFC 1.70 · Draw 3.93 · Cambrian & Clydach 3.68
    • Implied 1X2 · Haverfordwest County AFC 52.8% · Draw 22.8% · Cambrian & Clydach 24.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 21, 2026 · 18:46 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Haverfordwest County AFC 1.70 · Draw 3.93 · Cambrian & Clydach 3.68
    • Implied 1X2 · Haverfordwest County AFC 52.8% · Draw 22.8% · Cambrian & Clydach 24.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 21, 2026 · 18:45 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Cambrian & Clydach win · 0–3
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (12 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 40/100
Betting Confidence 45/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 15, 2026 · 02:20 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4039274

Closing Odds 1.7
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Cambrian & Clydach win · Haverfordwest County AFC 0–3 Cambrian & Clydach
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Premier League
  • Fixture: Haverfordwest County AFC vs Cambrian & Clydach
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-21 18:45:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.0% · Draw 29.4% · Away 29.6%
  • xG (showing): Haverfordwest County AFC 1.42 — Cambrian & Clydach 1.18 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.1% · No 45.9%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.1% · No 45.9%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

Related Predictions

See Upcoming Premier League Matches Track Haverfordwest County AFC Next Match Prediction Track Cambrian & Clydach Next Match Prediction View Today's Football Predictions

Get Premium Predictions for Haverfordwest County AFC & Cambrian & Clydach!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now
Back to Predictions
Premier League Premier League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 The New Saints 10 9 1 0 28
2 Penybont 10 7 3 0 24
3 Caernarfon Town 10 7 1 2 22
4 GAP Connah S Quay FC 10 7 1 2 22
5 Barry Town 10 7 1 2 22
6 Colwyn Bay 10 6 1 3 19
7 Llandudno 10 5 1 4 16
8 Airbus UK 10 5 0 5 15
9 Cambrian & Clydach 10 4 3 3 15
10 Cardiff MET 9 4 2 3 14
11 Haverfordwest County AFC 9 3 1 5 10
12 Briton Ferry 10 2 2 6 8
13 Trefelin 10 0 3 7 3
14 Ammanford AFC 10 0 3 7 3
15 Flint Town United 10 0 2 8 2
16 Holywell 10 0 1 9 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Caernarfon Town 10 33 11 +22 22
2 The New Saints 10 26 4 +22 28
3 Barry Town 10 25 16 +9 22
4 GAP Connah S Quay FC 10 23 7 +16 22
5 Penybont 10 20 8 +12 24
6 Colwyn Bay 10 20 14 +6 19
7 Cardiff MET 9 19 11 +8 14
8 Llandudno 10 18 14 +4 16
9 Airbus UK 10 17 15 +2 15
10 Cambrian & Clydach 10 17 20 -3 15
11 Holywell 10 11 35 -24 1
12 Briton Ferry 10 9 19 -10 8
13 Flint Town United 10 8 24 -16 2
14 Haverfordwest County AFC 9 7 14 -7 10
15 Ammanford AFC 10 7 28 -21 3
16 Trefelin 10 4 24 -20 3
Premier League Wales. Premier League Predictions