Predictions / Football / Wales. Premier League / GAP Connah S Quay FC vs Trefelin

Prediction Audit: GAP Connah S Quay FC vs Trefelin Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

GAP Connah S Quay FC GAP Connah S Quay FC
Aug 14, 2026 - 18:45
6 1.44
0 1.16
xG Accuracy: 21%
Trefelin Trefelin

AI correctly predicted the GAP Connah S Quay FC win.

The match finished 6–0, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 GAP Connah S Quay FC GAP Connah S Quay FC ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 6-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices GAP Connah S Quay FC higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: GAP Connah S Quay FC -33.3 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
GAP Connah S Quay FC 41.9% 75.2% -33.3 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.3% 15.5% +13.8 pp Model Edge
Trefelin 28.8% 9.4% +19.4 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates GAP Connah S Quay FC's win probability at 75.2%, compared with the model's estimate of 41.9%, a difference of 33.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (GAP Connah S Quay FC win 6–0).

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 6 goals materialised

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (6 goals)

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced GAP Connah S Quay FC higher (75.2% vs model 41.9%, 33.3 pp), but the model's lean was validated (GAP Connah S Quay FC win 6–0).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 14, 2026 · 18:46 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · GAP Connah S Quay FC 41.9% · Draw 29.3% · Trefelin 28.8%
    • xG · GAP Connah S Quay FC 1.44 — Trefelin 1.16
  2. Aug 14, 2026 · 18:15 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · GAP Connah S Quay FC 1.23 · Draw 5.98 · Trefelin 9.87
    • Implied 1X2 · GAP Connah S Quay FC 75.2% · Draw 15.5% · Trefelin 9.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 14, 2026 · 18:46 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · GAP Connah S Quay FC 1.23 · Draw 5.98 · Trefelin 9.87
    • Implied 1X2 · GAP Connah S Quay FC 75.2% · Draw 15.5% · Trefelin 9.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 14, 2026 · 18:45 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result GAP Connah S Quay FC win · 6–0
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 32/100 · Low
  • Validation: Fail
  • Large market gap (33 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market strongly disagrees on price
  • Validation failed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Monitoring Confidence 9/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 08, 2026 · 02:23 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3236276

Closing Odds 1.23
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result GAP Connah S Quay FC win · GAP Connah S Quay FC 6–0 Trefelin
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Model favours GAP Connah S Quay FC; market prices GAP Connah S Quay FC instead — inputs may be missing or stale.

  • Model: GAP Connah S Quay FC 1.44 xG vs Trefelin 1.16 → GAP Connah S Quay FC 41.9%
  • Market: GAP Connah S Quay FC ~75.2% implied
  • Validation failed — do not treat 1X2 EV as actionable.

Do not act on 1X2 value until validation passes. Structural leans (O/U, BTTS) need separate odds review.

Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.0% · No 46.0%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Premier League Premier League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 The New Saints 10 9 1 0 28
2 Penybont 10 7 3 0 24
3 Caernarfon Town 10 7 1 2 22
4 GAP Connah S Quay FC 10 7 1 2 22
5 Barry Town 10 7 1 2 22
6 Colwyn Bay 10 6 1 3 19
7 Llandudno 10 5 1 4 16
8 Airbus UK 10 5 0 5 15
9 Cambrian & Clydach 10 4 3 3 15
10 Cardiff MET 9 4 2 3 14
11 Haverfordwest County AFC 9 3 1 5 10
12 Briton Ferry 10 2 2 6 8
13 Trefelin 10 0 3 7 3
14 Ammanford AFC 10 0 3 7 3
15 Flint Town United 10 0 2 8 2
16 Holywell 10 0 1 9 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Caernarfon Town 10 33 11 +22 22
2 The New Saints 10 26 4 +22 28
3 Barry Town 10 25 16 +9 22
4 GAP Connah S Quay FC 10 23 7 +16 22
5 Penybont 10 20 8 +12 24
6 Colwyn Bay 10 20 14 +6 19
7 Cardiff MET 9 19 11 +8 14
8 Llandudno 10 18 14 +4 16
9 Airbus UK 10 17 15 +2 15
10 Cambrian & Clydach 10 17 20 -3 15
11 Holywell 10 11 35 -24 1
12 Briton Ferry 10 9 19 -10 8
13 Flint Town United 10 8 24 -16 2
14 Haverfordwest County AFC 9 7 14 -7 10
15 Ammanford AFC 10 7 28 -21 3
16 Trefelin 10 4 24 -20 3
Premier League Wales. Premier League Predictions