Predictions / Football / Wales. Premier League / Caernarfon Town vs Penybont

Prediction Audit: Caernarfon Town vs Penybont Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town
Aug 07, 2026 - 18:45
1 1.41
2 1.19
xG Accuracy: 72%
Penybont Penybont

The model missed the final outcome (Penybont win 1–2).

The model had projected Caernarfon Town at 40.4%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Caernarfon Town Penybont ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 0-0 1-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices Caernarfon Town higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Caernarfon Town -7.3 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Caernarfon Town 40.4% 47.7% -7.3 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.4% 26.7% +2.8 pp Aligned
Penybont 30.1% 25.6% +4.6 pp Aligned

The closing market estimates Caernarfon Town's win probability at 47.7%, compared with the model's estimate of 40.4%, a difference of 7.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.

After full time, the result was Penybont win 1–2.

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Caernarfon Town. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Caernarfon Town; match finished Penybont

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Caernarfon Town by 7.3 percentage points (47.7% vs model 40.4%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 07, 2026 · 18:45 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Caernarfon Town 40.5% · Draw 29.4% · Penybont 30.1%
    • xG · Caernarfon Town 1.41 — Penybont 1.19
  2. Aug 07, 2026 · 18:17 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Caernarfon Town 1.94 · Draw 3.47 · Penybont 3.62
    • Implied 1X2 · Caernarfon Town 47.7% · Draw 26.7% · Penybont 25.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 07, 2026 · 18:45 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
    • 1X2 odds · Caernarfon Town 1.94 · Draw 3.47 · Penybont 3.62
    • Implied 1X2 · Caernarfon Town 47.7% · Draw 26.7% · Penybont 25.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 07, 2026 · 18:45 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Penybont win · 1–2
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 75/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 63/100
Betting Confidence 78/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 01, 2026 · 02:51 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2683218

Closing Odds 1.94
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Penybont win · Caernarfon Town 1–2 Penybont
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Premier League
  • Fixture: Caernarfon Town vs Penybont
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-07 18:45:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 40.5% · Draw 29.4% · Away 30.1%
  • xG (showing): Caernarfon Town 1.41 — Penybont 1.19 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.2% · No 45.8%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.2% · No 45.8%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Premier League Premier League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 The New Saints 10 9 1 0 28
2 Penybont 10 7 3 0 24
3 Caernarfon Town 10 7 1 2 22
4 GAP Connah S Quay FC 10 7 1 2 22
5 Barry Town 10 7 1 2 22
6 Colwyn Bay 10 6 1 3 19
7 Llandudno 10 5 1 4 16
8 Airbus UK 10 5 0 5 15
9 Cambrian & Clydach 10 4 3 3 15
10 Cardiff MET 9 4 2 3 14
11 Haverfordwest County AFC 9 3 1 5 10
12 Briton Ferry 10 2 2 6 8
13 Trefelin 10 0 3 7 3
14 Ammanford AFC 10 0 3 7 3
15 Flint Town United 10 0 2 8 2
16 Holywell 10 0 1 9 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Caernarfon Town 10 33 11 +22 22
2 The New Saints 10 26 4 +22 28
3 Barry Town 10 25 16 +9 22
4 GAP Connah S Quay FC 10 23 7 +16 22
5 Penybont 10 20 8 +12 24
6 Colwyn Bay 10 20 14 +6 19
7 Cardiff MET 9 19 11 +8 14
8 Llandudno 10 18 14 +4 16
9 Airbus UK 10 17 15 +2 15
10 Cambrian & Clydach 10 17 20 -3 15
11 Holywell 10 11 35 -24 1
12 Briton Ferry 10 9 19 -10 8
13 Flint Town United 10 8 24 -16 2
14 Haverfordwest County AFC 9 7 14 -7 10
15 Ammanford AFC 10 7 28 -21 3
16 Trefelin 10 4 24 -20 3
Premier League Wales. Premier League Predictions