The model missed the final outcome (Caernarfon Town win 1–2).
The model had projected GAP Connah S Quay FC at 39.0%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 GAP Connah S Quay FC Caernarfon Town ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-2 ✔ Correct
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GAP Connah S Quay FC | 39.0% | 43.7% | -4.8 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.5% | 27.3% | +2.2 pp | Aligned |
| Caernarfon Town | 31.5% | 28.9% | +2.5 pp | Aligned |
The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Caernarfon Town win 1–2.
Market Assessment
The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.
- Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Exact score 1–2 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
- 1X2: model leaned GAP Connah S Quay FC; match finished Caernarfon Town
Market lesson
The full-time result was Caernarfon Town win 1–2, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Aug 02, 2026 · 13:29 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · GAP Connah S Quay FC 39.0% · Draw 29.5% · Caernarfon Town 31.5%
- xG · GAP Connah S Quay FC 1.38 — Caernarfon Town 1.22
-
Aug 02, 2026 · 13:02 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · GAP Connah S Quay FC 2.14 · Draw 3.41 · Caernarfon Town 3.15
- Implied 1X2 · GAP Connah S Quay FC 43.4% · Draw 27.2% · Caernarfon Town 29.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 02, 2026 · 13:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · GAP Connah S Quay FC 2.15 · Draw 3.44 · Caernarfon Town 3.25
- Implied 1X2 · GAP Connah S Quay FC 43.7% · Draw 27.3% · Caernarfon Town 28.9%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 02, 2026 · 13:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Caernarfon Town win · 1–2
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Pass
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Explore More Predictions Content
Get Premium Predictions for GAP Connah S Quay FC & Caernarfon Town!
Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.
Subscribe Now
Premier League — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The New Saints | 10 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 28 |
| 2 | Penybont | 10 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 24 |
| 3 | Caernarfon Town | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 22 |
| 4 | GAP Connah S Quay FC | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 22 |
| 5 | Barry Town | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 22 |
| 6 | Colwyn Bay | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 19 |
| 7 | Llandudno | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 16 |
| 8 | Airbus UK | 10 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 15 |
| 9 | Cambrian & Clydach | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 15 |
| 10 | Cardiff MET | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 11 | Haverfordwest County AFC | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 10 |
| 12 | Briton Ferry | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 8 |
| 13 | Trefelin | 10 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 3 |
| 14 | Ammanford AFC | 10 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 3 |
| 15 | Flint Town United | 10 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 2 |
| 16 | Holywell | 10 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 1 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Caernarfon Town | 10 | 33 | 11 | +22 | 22 |
| 2 | The New Saints | 10 | 26 | 4 | +22 | 28 |
| 3 | Barry Town | 10 | 25 | 16 | +9 | 22 |
| 4 | GAP Connah S Quay FC | 10 | 23 | 7 | +16 | 22 |
| 5 | Penybont | 10 | 20 | 8 | +12 | 24 |
| 6 | Colwyn Bay | 10 | 20 | 14 | +6 | 19 |
| 7 | Cardiff MET | 9 | 19 | 11 | +8 | 14 |
| 8 | Llandudno | 10 | 18 | 14 | +4 | 16 |
| 9 | Airbus UK | 10 | 17 | 15 | +2 | 15 |
| 10 | Cambrian & Clydach | 10 | 17 | 20 | -3 | 15 |
| 11 | Holywell | 10 | 11 | 35 | -24 | 1 |
| 12 | Briton Ferry | 10 | 9 | 19 | -10 | 8 |
| 13 | Flint Town United | 10 | 8 | 24 | -16 | 2 |
| 14 | Haverfordwest County AFC | 9 | 7 | 14 | -7 | 10 |
| 15 | Ammanford AFC | 10 | 7 | 28 | -21 | 3 |
| 16 | Trefelin | 10 | 4 | 24 | -20 | 3 |
